Tioga, ND 58852 Weather

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This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

Day one: Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Days two through seven: Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard procedures, including through our social media accounts.

Key messages

- Fog could develop in southwest and far south central North Dakota later tonight into Friday morning.

- Near normal temperatures through Friday, becoming above normal this weekend into early next week.

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for light rain Friday night through Saturday, followed by medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) for rain Sunday night through Monday night, possibly lasting into Tuesday.

Update

Issued at 551 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Isolated shower activity continues to track east, exiting the James River Valley. Very light reflectivities also continue along the International Border and likely anything reaching the ground would be a sprinkle. Some low VFR cloudiness associated with the activity over the JRV, and some lower clouds in the far northwest. Otherwise, expect mainly mid and high clouds under partly cloudy skies this evening. No changes to the going forecast at this time.

Discussion

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Currently, strong to moderate zonal flow aloft over the Northern Plains with broad ridging from the Central Plains back northwest across the Rockies. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extends from southern Saskatchewan southeast into western Minnesota. A few light showers continue across the southern James River Valley into southeastern areas of the state, associated with an area of low/mid level frontogensis.

Models continue to suggest fog redeveloping into parts of southwest and south central ND later tonight, but have trended south with the aerial placement last few runs. Will maintain in the forecast for now.

Broad ridging aloft amplifies and develops east for the upcoming weekend, trending temperatures warmer with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Sat and Sun. At the same time, boundary layer moisture increases thanks to a southerly mid level flow transporting 50+ degree Td values. With embedded disturbances moving through the flow aloft, sky cover will be robust along with a chances for light showers/drizzle both days.

Deep upper level low pressure off the West Coast within long wave troughing aloft will swing inland Sunday, then crosses the Rockies and moves into the Great Plains Sunday night into Monday. Ensembles and NBM continue to favor medium to high chances for rain west Sunday night and area wide for Monday/Mon night, with precipitation chances slowly decreasing Tuesday from west to east as the main forcing departs to our east. Might see chances linger longer on Tuesday depending the degree of wrap around that occurs. QPF amounts are forecast to range from around a quarter inch, with some area up to half an inch possible. Precip type will be all liquid with this event.

Thereafter, ensembles suggest lots of uncertainty after Tuesday, with near normal temperatures expected for now in the 40s and 50s and lows cooling to subfreezing by the middle of next week. Precip chances will be heavily dependent on any upper level feature moving through the region, and right now the forecast is dry both Wed and Thu.

Aviation

Issued at 551 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions expected to begin the 00Z TAF period. Some MVFR ceilings along the International Border, but this is expected to remain along/north of the border. Otherwise VFR cloudiness is expected this evening and into the overnight period. After midnight some lower stratus and/or fog may develop over the far southwest and south central, and slowly progress northward into Saturday. Currently the highest probabilities for fog/stratus are in the southwest, south of the KDIK TAF site, but did include a period of MVFR clouds at KDIK by Saturday afternoon. Generally light north to east surface flow 12kts or less through the period. The exception being the southwest portion of the state where winds become southeast 12 to 16kts Saturday afternoon.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.