Willow City, ND 58384 Weather

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This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

Day one: Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Days two through seven: Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard procedures, including through our social media accounts.

Key messages

- Fog could develop in southwest and south central North Dakota this morning.

- Near normal temperatures through Friday, becoming above normal this weekend into early next week.

- Medium to high chances for rain Sunday night through Monday night, possibly lasting into Tuesday.

Update

Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Cloud cover is a challenging aspect of the forecast early this morning. Low stratus persists over much of northern North Dakota, but with periodic and random breaks embedded, and has more recently expanded as far southeast as near Jamestown. Satellite imagery also infers lake-effect stratus streaming southeast off of Van Hook Arm, with no indication of flurries falling underneath. There is also a west-to-east band of mid level clouds just north of I-94 between the Montana border and the Missouri River. Very few, if any, models or ensembles appear to be handling observed sky cover well.

Rapid-refresh guidance is still insistent on areas of dense fog from around Beach to Linton beyond forecast hour zero, but this has yet to materialize. Just within the last half hour though, there are now finally signs of fog trying to develop on nighttime satellite imagery and surface webcams to the southwest of Dickinson.

Discussion

Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low-amplitude mid to upper level ridging is analyzed over the Northern Plains early this morning, with a surface ridge axis extending from southern Alberta to western North Dakota. A bank of low clouds across northern North Dakota has kept overnight temperatures in the 30s, while most locations to the south have fallen into the 20s. There is still potential for fog to develop in southwest and south central North Dakota closer to sunrise this morning, but dewpoint depressions are already at or near zero with little to no wind, and some mid level clouds have developed. Little to no change is expected in the upper flow pattern today as the NW-SE oriented surface ridge axis slides eastward across the region. There are two potential areas for light precipitation this afternoon: one caused by low level warm air advection from far south central to southeast North Dakota and another from low level frontogenesis in far northwest North Dakota. Measurable precipitation is not expected from either of them, and therefore is not being mentioned in other forecast products at this time. A quiet weather day is anticipated, with highs ranging from the lower and mid 40s north to mid 50s southwest. The surface ridge axis is forecast to cut through the northern Red River Valley tonight, leaving western and south central North Dakota under a light easterly flow. Forecast lows are mostly in the 20s, with a potential for low- lying, sheltered areas to fall into the teens. High-resolution guidance shows two different potential fog regimes late tonight: one from radiational cooling closer to the surface ridge in north central North Dakota, and another in the southwest driven by upslope flow with moisture advection.

The mid to upper level ridge is forecast to become more amplified over the region on Friday, but east to southeast low level/surface flow and a potential for a mostly cloudy sky could keep highs similar to today, with mid 40s north to lower and mid 50s south. From late Friday through Sunday, the mid/upper ridge axis should take on a negative tilt, turning flow aloft over the Northern Plains to the southwest. One to several shortwaves could eject from the base of a trough that moves over the western CONUS during that time period, placing low chances for light rain/drizzle in the local forecast at times. Temperatures are forecast to rise above normal this weekend, accompanied by unseasonably high dewpoints around 45 to 55 degrees Fahrenheit. NBM projected high temperatures in the lower 50s to lower 60s on Saturday and mid 50s to mid 60s on Sunday may be a little too optimistic given expected cloud cover, but overnight lows should remain well above freezing.

From late Sunday through Monday, the western CONUS trough is forecast to kick into the Plains, and could join forces with a northern stream shortwave diving down from Canada. Ensemble cluster analysis supports the medium to high chances for rain the NBM brings through the region Sunday night through Monday night, with all clusters showing high chances (greater than 70 percent) for measurable rain over a 24-hour period. QPF threshold probabilities quickly lower for higher amounts, with only low chances for exceeding a quarter of an inch of rain. But the highest membership cluster (~35 percent) does have higher mean QPF and threshold probabilities than the other 3 clusters. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing throughout the event, keeping all precipitation as rain only. Sub-freezing temperatures do enter the forecast late Monday night, but that appears to be contingent on rain and associated cloud cover departing sooner. In other words, if precipitation lingers Monday night into Tuesday, which is supported by ~55 percent of the total ensemble membership, Monday night/Tuesday morning temperatures are more likely to remain above freezing. Forecast uncertainty approaching the middle of next week is rooted in the eastward progression of the central CONUS trough, but all solutions would leave the Northern Plains under a northwest flow pattern. The lowest-membership cluster on Wednesday drives a potent trough into the Upper Midwest, but other clusters tend to keep this feature weaker and/or further north. Spread in the NBM temperature distribution grows by the middle of next week, but the 25th percentile keeps both highs and lows near average (mid 40s and mid 20s, respectively), with the 75th percentile of each around 10 degrees above average.

Aviation

Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR ceilings continue across northern North Dakota early this morning, and have now spread as far south as KJMS. Confidence in the evolution of these clouds is low, but think it is likely that ceilings will lift to VFR levels by this afternoon. Patchy fog is still possible in southwest and south central North Dakota this morning, and was trying to develop near KDIK at the time of TAF issuance. Mostly light and variable winds are expected through the forecast period, but west-northwest winds around 10 kts are possible this morning across the north, and easterly winds could approach 10 kts in southwest and south central North Dakota this afternoon.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.