Erhard, MN 56534 Weather

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

Day one: Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible over parts of west central Minnesota and the southeast corner of North Dakota this afternoon. Lightning is the main hazard.

Days two through seven: Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Key messages

- Scattered showers today mainly southeast ND into northwest/west central MN.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible Wadena-Fergus Falls-Elbow Lake area early to mid afternoon. Moderate chance of a strong storm.

- Temperatures this weekend into early next week will be around 10 degrees above normal for highs.

Update

Issued at 714 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Thru the night, updated SPS for patchy dense fog that does persist from Cooperstown to Lisbon/Gwinner and into parts of Cass county ND. Webcams show continued patchy/area fog coverage and thus SPS was issued and not advisory. This was done after coordination with BIS/ABR on fog. Seems as if earlier model data used for the grids from 00z were too wet this morning with shower chances as composite radar shows limited activity. barely worth of a 20 pop in the area from north of Bemidji to Hillsboro to Valley City where higher chances are. Devils Lake-Grand Forks-Roseau and north on the edge and precipitation chances are 10-30 percent. 06z SPC update for day 1 had marginal risk for severe storms skirting southern Wadena county, southeast Otter Tail, and Grant County MN. Based on instability forecasts do feel better severe chances is tied more to the slight risk area from SPC more toward the Twin Cities. Mentioned t-storm chances in HWO for that part of west central MN near marginal risk and it is in the forecast grids.

Discussion

Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

: Synopsis:

The trough that has brought precipitation to the region overnight into this morning (and a few lingering pockets of drizzle in north central MN) is transitioning to the north, while the next shortwave trough that will bring rain chances Wednesday is centered over Oregon upstream. After the next wave passes Wednesday a large upper low and persistent trough pattern is shown to remain entrenched upstream over the Pacific Northwest, with a general SW flow pattern across the central Rockies towards the Northern Plains. Our immediate region will tend to be under broader ridging within this split-southwest flow pattern initially keeping more active tracks and rain chances out of the region. However as the more active SW flow pattern builds east towards the weekend there are general rain chances which increase as the larger upper low/trough finally moves east of the Rockies into early next week. Current consensus keeps this to the south, however there is still a broad precipitation signal with this pattern change. Due to above average air mass remain in place there continues to be a signal/trend towards only rain.

: Rain on Wednesday:

The shortwave trough over Oregon quickly progresses across Rockies and into the Northern Plains overnight tonight into Wednesday morning and increasing forcing for ascent, moisture return, and some instability should support increasing rain coverage particularly in MN head of an associated frontal zone. There may be enough instability for some thunderstorm activity across west central MN which could contribute to localized higher rain totals. Strong/severe storms are not anticipated this far north with any potential for higher instability farther south. General totals will be lighter for most areas with probs for 0.1" and 0.25" high east of the RRV but probability in NBM/HREF for 0.5" lower (20-30% in our far east) and likely dependent on convective activity.

Aviation

Issued at 714 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Typical early morning fashion where low clouds are mixed with some some clearing along the western edge of low clouds from Hallock to Grand Forks back to Cooperstown. Mid and high clouds mask the extent of low IFR ceilings around KGFK and KDVL. Clearing has been making progress eastward overnight as drier air at 850 mb moves in from the west on the south side of upper low in Saskatchewan. Timing of clearing as it works its way east this afternoon and coverage of IFR or LIFR ceilings this morning and early afternoon are a concern for TAF amendments.

Watches, warnings and advisories

ND: None. MN: None.