St. Paul, MN 55155 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

Day one

Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong to severe with a few tornadoes, large hail or damaging winds possible.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Key messages

- Multiple rounds of rain expected through early next week, including the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon-evening.

- Temperatures to run above normal through early next week, with the warmest temperatures expected today as highs climb to the 60s to lower 70s.

Discussion

Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Despite what is generally zonal flow aloft, there is a significant shortwave mid-level trough moving atop the Rockies during this overnight period which will eject into the Northern Plains later this morning. This trough will work in conjunction with a surface frontal boundary draped over southern MN currently to produce a potentially interesting and active weather day for this afternoon-evening.

The trough will shift across the Dakotas during the day today as strong southerly flow advects both higher moisture and warmer air into southern MN and western WI. By midday today, the entire WFO MPX coverage area will find itself within the warm sector ahead of a low pressure center developing over eastern SD, with its warm front into northern MN and its cold front sagging south over central NE/KS. Highs will range through the 60s and into the lower 70s, warmest near and south/east of the MN River while dewpoints rise through the 50s, potentially reaching 60. Favorable timing for the frontal passage, allowing for peak heating with peak instability, will allow for a fairly wide swath of rainfall with embedded thunderstorms in western MN early afternoon which will shift eastward through this evening. Model soundings continue to show veering winds with height and favorable hodographs, indicating a decent potential for discrete supercells. Though persistent cloud cover may be the limiting factor, there is enough model and analog evidence that a few tornadoes are not unreasonable for today in eastern MN into western WI, particularly for the mid-late afternoon hours. As the event progresses today, MLCAPEs are still progged to climb to around 1000 j/kg, which with colder air aloft, could transition the hazard from tornadoes to a hail/wind threat. Then again, this is also a situation where the ingredients simply do not come together due to lower instability, insufficient heating, poor frontal timing, or other meteorological hindrances. Thus, today is a highly conditional threat but one that bears watching, especially under the context that collab with the SPC has nudged the risk into the Slight (Level 2 of 5) Category for a small area around the Twin Cities metro and into far western WI.

The cold front will push well into WI later this evening and into the Great Lakes by daybreak Thursday. As such, any and all rainfall will be completely out of our coverage area prior to midnight tonight, followed by drier, cooler and much more stable high pressure for Thursday. There's even a pretty good chance that we'll have plentiful sunshine for Thursday in the wake of today's unsettled weather. Highs for Thursday will drop to the 50s to lower 60s. The western extent of today's passing cold front, located over the Central Plains, will push northward a bit on Friday into Saturday but not as much as previous forecasts. Thus, the chances for rain on Saturday are a bit lower and more confined to southern MN for only scattered rain showers.

A better chance for rain still looks to come Monday into Tuesday but now the track of this system looks to stay farther south, greatly scaling back the potential for thunderstorms in lieu of more stratiform rain with the warm front remaining to the south instead of snapping northward into the Upper Midwest. This will limit omega lift and PVA in favor of greater isentropic lift across our coverage area and also tamp down temperatures from getting too far greater than normal. Highs Thursday-Saturday will remain in the 50s to lower 60s, followed by highs Sunday- Monday in the upper 50s to mid 60s as this system moves across the region. Behind it, highs will return to the 50s for the middle of next week along with less active weather.

Aviation

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Combination of VFR to IFR categories depending on what airport you're looking at this afternoon. Eastern sites have cleared out from the cloud cover while western sites continue to struggle from the low MVFR/IFR cigs. This will aid in quite a thermal gradient and where we expect stronger TSRA to occur this afternoon/evening. Tempos for TSRA have been adjusted back an hour or so based off of latest CAM trends. As of now the strongest TSRA is expected from MSP, RNH, EAU, and potentially STC with timing between 22-01z. Southerly winds increase as warm advection moves in from the south gusting to near 20kts at times. Once the front and precip pass, winds shift NW'ly to near 10kts. Cigs and vsby will clear out back into VFR between 03-07z from west to east.

KMSP: Aside from what has been mentioned above, did delay timing for TSRA back between 23 to 01z. Southerly winds will shift NW'ly once the front passes this evening. Cigs improve back into VFR after 5z becoming mostly clear the remainder of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI: VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. SAT: Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts. SUN: VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MN: None. WI: None.