Caroline, WI 54928 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin.

Day one: Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Days two through seven: Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

Key messages

- Spotty light rain (30-60% chances) for Halloween across central and east-central WI. Rainfall amounts less than 0.10 inch.

- A slow moving low pressure system brings widespread showers (60-80%) and gusty winds from Monday afternoon through Wednesday, peaking on Election Day. The chance of showers lingers into Thursday.

- The probability of 48 hour rainfall totals over 1" from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon range from 50-80% north and west of the Fox Valley, and 40-50% over Fox Valley east to Lake Michigan.

- Above normal temperatures should continue until late next week.

Discussion

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A band of mid clouds will move across northern Wisconsin overnight, which should allow temperatures to rebound in a few spots across the north where temperatures tanked earlier in the evening. Tranquil conditions will prevail on Friday into Friday night as above normal temperatures continue as high pressure slides east of the area. Attention then turns to Saturday and how far north the rain makes it into northeast Wisconsin. Precipitation will have to overcome a lot of dry air, so most of the rain (20-50% chance) should fall during the afternoon hours south of a line from Rhinelander to Sturgeon Bay. The chances (20-40%) of showers continue Saturday night across the entire area with mild and dry conditions expected on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the lower to middle 60s, while the normal high for this time of year is around 50 degrees.

A slow moving low pressure will bring a chance of showers Monday afternoon, then a 60-80% chance of rain Monday night into Tuesday, with additional chances of rain into Wednesday and Thursday. Will need to watch high temperatures on Tuesday which may be a tad bit too warm based on the expected weather, although it will still be warmer than normal. Rainfall totals over an inch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon range from 50-80% north and west of the Fox Valley, with a 40-50% chance from the Fox Valley east to the lakeshore. The chances of showers will continue into Thursday, but precipitation amounts will be on the light.

Temperatures will remain above normal the next week, though a bit of a cooldown (temperatures returning to around normal) occurs late next week after the low pressure system passes by. Available long range guidance points to above normal temperatures through most of November. Official forecast for meteorological winter (Dec through Feb) also favors above normal temperatures which is right in line with the ongoing very strong El Nino.

Aviation

for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Generally good flying weather is expected through the taf period. Confluent mid-level winds across the northern Plains to western Great Lakes will lead to broken mid-level clouds with ceilings above 9 kft at times.

At the surface, high pressure will become centered across the region. As a result, light surface winds can be expected through the TAF period.

Ceilings start lowering after 06Z Sat as a storm system over the central Plains slides closer to the region. MVFR ceilings will start to move into central WI by 12Z, but indications are that sub 3 kft AGL ceilings will not arrive at the terminals until after 12Z Sat.

Marine

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A slow moving low pressure system will bring hazardous conditions Monday night into Tuesday night on the bay and Lake Michigan. Gusty winds and high waves will continue on Lake Michigan through Thursday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.