Minocqua, WI 54531 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin.

Day one: Tonight

A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible tonight. The strongest storms this evening over north-central Wisconsin could produce wind gusts over 40 mph and brief heavy downpours.

Days two through seven: Thursday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotters are requested to report peak wind gusts to the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Key messages

- Showers (60-90%) with a chance of storms (20-40%) this evening into early Thursday. Gusty winds to 40 mph and brief heavy downpours primary hazards with the storms this evening in north- central Wisconsin.

- Additional chances for scattered showers this weekend (10-30%) with increasing chances for rain (40-60%) and gusty winds early next week, peaking on Election Day.

- Record or near record temperatures this afternoon, with temperatures remaining above normal into next week.

- Hazardous conditions for small craft expected tonight into Thursday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bay and Lake Michigan.

Discussion

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Showers and storms tonight: Warm front is lifting north of Wisconsin. Surface instability is limited to southern Minnesota on nose of 55-60 surface dewpoints. Surface instability remains west of central Wisconsin into the evening, even as low-level jet up 45+ kts arrives ahead of cold front tied to surface low lifting into western Lake Superior to western Ontario Canada. Showers and thunderstorms will develop on nose of the LLJ and lift into central and north-central Wisconsin. Even eastern areas will see measurable rain, though bulk of QPF (around 0.5 inch) will occur over north-central Wisconsin. Given strength of winds aloft (effective shear up to 35 kts) and elevated instability (500+ j/kg), cannot rule out an isolated 50+ mph gust if a line segment can get going perpendicular to the strong winds aloft, but minimal surface based instability due to low-level inversion and later arrival of storms past dark (peak coverage 7 pm to 11 pm), along with lack of strong forcing and weaker lapse rates seem to point to weakening convection as it moves in.

We are in a favored portion of larger scale trough for Gravity Wave Associated Convection (GWAC), but various model reflectivity fields don't show the usual look of separated pulses of higher cores which you sometimes see with GWAC and HREF/REFS data has a non-existent signal for any higher peak wind gusts. Overall this setup has a look of brief downpours, gusty winds to 40 mph with the stronger storms, especially over north-central Wisconsin. SPC Day1 outlook does clip our north-central, but at this point it seems like a pretty low-end marginal risk for our area. Rain ends late tonight into early Thursday as the cold front shifts through.

Dry late this week, then rain chances this weekend: High pressure settles overhead late Thursday into Friday. Main impact could be some fog on Thursday night. Coolest temperatures for the next week will be Thursday night into Friday, but even during the coolest day readings will still be above normal. Southern stream wave lifts toward the state on Saturday, but with limited surface reflection associated rain showers with it will diminish as it moves farther north. Greatest chances for rain (20-30%) will be over central and east-central Wisconsin. Thus, could see scattered showers for any Halloween activities, but not expecting a washout.

Looking ahead, small chances of rain could linger Sunday-Monday, but better chances continue to ramp up (up to 60%) for Tuesday which is Election Day. May also see gusty east winds and cooler temps than current forecast shows especially if stronger surface low exits the plains to the midwest/Ohio Valley as has occasionally been shown by models last few days. NBM/LREF probabilities for at least 0.05 inch of rain on Tuesday continue to be higher.

Aviation

for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Warm front is north of area and low clouds have scattered out. VFR clouds with a brief period of showers are expected at CWA/AUW/RHI this afternoon. As cold front and low-level jet move in this evening, plan on at least a few hour period of showers with embedded storms. Greatest risk for isolated strong storm with wind gusts over 40 kts will be at RHI. Started to hint at these gusty winds in the TAF there. Otherwise, have used mix of TEMPO and PROB30 groups at the other TAF sites to cover the potential for storms. All rain should exit eastern WI sites after 08z-09z Thursday.

Flight conditions will be VFR this afternoon, then deteriorate to low end VFR and MVFR tonight as the showers shift through. MVFR clouds may linger into mid morning for most sites, before the clouds scatter out late morning into the afternoon. A few pesky MVFR to VFR stratocu could hang on well into the afternoon north of RHI.

Regarding winds, gusty southerly winds this afternoon will persist through tonight, before winds shift to the northwest on Thursday morning behind the cold front. Gusts up to 20 kts could continue on Thursday. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) down to 015 AGL occurs tonight as the low-level jet is directly overhead, only abating from north to south 06z-11z Thursday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.