Chili, WI 54420 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Minnesota: northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

Day one: Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven: Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

No action needed.

Emergency management coordination

No webinar is scheduled.

Key messages

- Scattered rain showers this morning for much of the forecast area then diminishing during the afternoon and evening.

- Widespread rain (85 to 95%) for early next week with a good chance at seeing at least 1" of rain (50 to 70%).

- Temperatures remain above normal with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s for early next week then trend cooler for the rest of the week.

Discussion

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Today - Sunday: Light Rain Today, Trending Warmer Sunday

Scattered rain showers, as a result of warm air and theta-e advection, have made their way through the CWA and are now mostly in western Wisconsin, north of I-90. Coverage in the scattered rain showers increases this morning as a shortwave trough moves northward from Texas along with another push of low-level moisture. A couple hundred joules of MUCAPE are also shown in local soundings which may bring a few rumbles of thunder to the area. While most locations should see light rain today, not much is expected for areas north of I-90 where totals are generally less than 0.15". Areas south of I-90 have the highest chance at seeing more rain, between 20 and 40% chance for at least 0.25" falling by Sunday morning.

These showers begin decaying more frequently by the middle of the afternoon as the better forcing shifts off to the northeast and by the early to mid evening, most locations should be on the dry side. As for the trick-or-treating forecast, it is a little tricky to say the least. Diminishing showers, especially over western Wisconsin could cause some locations to experience a wetter late afternoon/early evening (20 to 40%) then others. Temperatures look to remain in the low to mid 50s for this evening. Heading into Sunday, the trough moves off to the east and ridging builds in. With some impulses leftover and the moisture remaining in place, some light showers may linger Sunday morning, however those chances are currently around 10 to 15% and the rest of Sunday will be dry and warm. Highs get back into the low to mid 60s which are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Monday - Wednesday: Widespread Rain with Above Normal Temperatures Continuing

Longwave troughing over the western US moves over the central US early next week and lingers through much of the week. The focus for our rain chances turns to a low pressure system forming in the central Plains on Monday. This system moves off to the northeast and may potentially linger into the midweek. As it does, an influx of moisture arrives and coinciding with this amount of forcing, a prolonged period of rain is expected from Monday into Wednesday. NAEFS continues to show the maximum percentile for PWATs on Monday evening and the 99.5 percentile for Tuesday morning as PWATs get into the 1.4 to 1.7" range. Dewpoints also increase into the upper 50s to low 60s for Monday and Tuesday. Now based on the EFI signal and comparing the heaviest rain axis in the ensemble guidance and AI guidance, the heavy rain signal largely remains off to our west and northwest. That being said the latest LREF gives a 20 to 45% chance of at least 1" of rain to fall between Monday morning and Tuesday morning. This does not include the rain that could fall the rest of the day Tuesday and into Wednesday. Some ensemble members do suggest the potential for 2 to 2.5" to fall, but that is only around a 10% of occurring. There is some uncertainty on how long the rain sticks around for as some models have the low being more transient with other models supporting a slower exit, with the latter meaning the potential rain to continue into Wednesday. Overall, it will be a wet start to the week with widespread rainfall likely. There remains a good chance for an inch of rain to occur with low potential for up to 2".

Temperatures for early next week remain above normal with highs in the 60s for Monday and Tuesday and back down to the 50s for Wednesday. With the continued period of rain, the low temperature for Monday is actually 7 to 10 degrees warmer than our normal high for this time of year as we will be under warm air advection. Cooler temperatures are expected for the end of the week.

Aviation

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

MVFR ceilings have advected into the local area earlier than previously forecasted, affecting KRST TAF site and most smaller airports west of the Mississippi River Valley in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota at 31.06Z TAF issuance. Therefore, have included MVFR ceilings at KRST although may see some slight TEMPO fluctuation into VFR (i.e., SCT025) at times before returns on RADAR imagery over south-central Minnesota arrive later in the overnight hours.

Low (IFR-MVFR) ceilings expected through much of Saturday in the wake of light rainfall early Saturday morning. Timing of impacts lifting later in the period remains low confidence and therefore have left MVFR at more susceptible at KRST TAF site until confidence improves for actual bettering conditions. FG potential and decreasing impacts possible after 31.06Z TAF terminus Sunday morning, returning potentially lifting impacts to KLSE TAF site. VFR stratus expected through Sunday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

WI: None. MN: None. IA: None.