Sobieski, WI 54171 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin.

Day one: This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Days two through seven: Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or tonight.

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Key messages

- Spotty light rain and sprinkles (20-60% chances) for Halloween. Rainfall amounts less than 0.10 inch.

- Unsettled conditions much of next week, with widespread showers (70-95%) and gusty winds Monday afternoon through Wednesday, peaking Monday night into Election Day. Shower chances lingers into Thursday.

- The probability of 48-hour rainfall totals over 1" from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon range from 60-75% north and west of the Fox Valley to 40-60% over Fox Valley east to Lake Michigan.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the middle of next week.

Discussion

Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dry conditions will continue this afternoon into tonight as high pressure slides across the Great Lakes, but clouds to thicken and lower this evening and especially overnight into Saturday morning. As moisture increases and weak low pressure arrives, chances for showers and sprinkles will increase on Saturday. Have kept PoPs in the 20-60% range as coverage looks somewhat limited do to some dry air at the surface to overcome, especially as you work into eastern WI. Highest chances will be in the afternoon or early evening. Amounts will be on the light side, under 0.10". The chances linger into Saturday night, then dry conditions return on Sunday.

A slow moving, moisture-laden system arrives Monday afternoon/ evening and sticks around into at least Thursday. Rain is likely Monday night into Tuesday (70-95%) with the initial surge of moisture and forcing. Then chance/likely PoPs will continue into Wednesday, then taper off on Thursday as the system finally exits to our east. Chances for exceeding 0.50 inch rain Monday Night through Tuesday are 70-90% with chances for exceeding 1.00 inch between 60-75% northwest of the Fox Valley, and 40-60% over east- central WI. Higher end projections take rainfall to 1.5 to 2.25 inches. Certainly looking like a soaking rain at times. Some elevated instability and impressive dynamics with the initial WAA surge Monday night to include some thunder, especially across central and north-central WI.

After a day with closer to normal temps, we trend back above normal into the weekend, with highs on Halloween mainly in the 50s and in the low to mid 60s on Sunday through Wednesday. Temps cool off behind the large system at the end of the week.

Aviation

for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon with mid and high clouds spreading across the region, generally above 9 kft. Ceilings start lowering after 06Z Saturday as a storm system over the central Plains moves closer to the region. MVFR ceilings will begin to move into central WI by ~12Z, but sub 3 kft ceilings don't look to arrive at AUW/CWA until after 18Z Sat. Patchy light rain and sprinkles will also be possible on Saturday, but no impacts to ceilings/visibilities are expected.

Light and variable winds generally under 5 kts will continue this afternoon into tonight. Winds will become south/southeast on Saturday at 5-10 kts.

Marine

Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A slow moving low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes Monday night into Wednesday morning, bringing gusty south to southeast winds and large waves on the bay and Lake Michigan. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. Winds will shift to the north on Thursday, possibly gusting to near 25 kts as the system departs to the east.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.