Oconto Falls, WI 54154 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin.

Day one: Today and Tonight

A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible tonight.

Days two through seven: Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

Key messages

- Rain expected (60-90%) with a chance (15-40%) of non-severe storms this evening into early Thursday. Another chance (15-25%) for scattered showers this weekend, and again early next week.

- Record or near record temperatures this afternoon, with temperatures staying above normal into next week.

- Hazardous conditions for small craft expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bay and Lake Michigan.

Discussion

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A few showers lingered across north-central and far northeast Wisconsin during the late evening. These showers should come to an end overnight. Some patchy fog was also noted across the north. It was mild with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For Wednesday, a warm front will lift northward allowing for unseasonably mild temperatures for late October with record or near record high temperatures. There is a 60-90% chance temperatures reach 70 degrees south of Highway 29. Record highs for Wednesday (10/28) are 70 at Green Bay (1946), 71 at Wausau (1986) and 78 at Rhinelander (1927). Showers and scattered thunderstorms along a cold front will move across the area Wednesday evening. Bufkit soundings indicated around 500 J/KG of CAPE although 0-6 shear values are around 20 knots. However, bufkit soundings indicated strong winds off the deck (40-50 knots). The Day 2 Outlook from SPC has the Marginal Risk of severe weather over west-central WI. The showers should come to an end Thursday morning across eastern WI as high pressure builds into the region. Dry and mild conditions continue Thursday and Friday before the next chance of rain (15-30%) arrives on Saturday and then lingers into Sunday. Based on the model output of the Canadian/ECMWF low confidence if/when rain would occur next weekend.

Aviation

for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Early this morning, a diffuse warm front is lifting north across far northern WI. North of this front, IFR ceilings have lifted north into the Upper Peninsula, while MVFR ceilings are generally north of Merrill (RRL) and Antigo (AIG). Patchy ground fog has developed where skies have cleared, with local visibilities down to a quarter mile.

The patchy ground fog should lift by 13-14Z this morning. MVFR ceilings continue to slowly shift east across western WI early this morning. Therefore, will carry MVFR flight conditions at RHI through 16Z before trending VFR. Have maintained low end VFR conditions at AUW/CWA but trends will need to be monitored. After a period of VFR ceilings during the afternoon, a cold front will bring a broken band of showers and thunderstorms to the region after 01Z Thu. MVFR visibilities and ceilings will be possible in the heavier downpours and also for a short time period along the front. Once the cold front passes, flight conditions should improve relatively quickly.

Lastly, strengthening winds aloft to 45-50 kts will bring in more wind shear between 00Z and 10Z Thu.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.