Ellsworth, WI 54011 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

Day one

Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Key messages

- Dry conditions continue this afternoon through Friday night, with scattered showers returning on Saturday followed by more persistent and widespread rain Monday through Tuesday.

- Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through the middle of next week.

Discussion

Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Latest water vapor imagery details upper-level troughing near the Hudson Bay region. To our west, ridging extends into the southern Canadian Prairies and is allowing for zonal flow over the northern plains. A 1025mb sfc high is the primary culprit for today's beautiful conditions. This high pressure continues to erode the blanket of low stratus over the northern half of MN and WI from early this morning. With plentiful sunshine expected for the rest of this afternoon, temperatures should reach the the upper 50s for most sites otherwise areas from a line northwest of Mora down to Benson can expect lower 50s. A band of mid-level cu that exists over the Dakotas moves in this evening which belongs to a weak sfc low. Luckily, this low is starved of any moisture therefore PoPs will remain null tonight. If you do have any evening plans, you may want to grab the jacket as lows dip down into the upper 30s for most. A few sites north and east of a line from Little Falls over to Ladysmith could dabble into the upper 20s. Northwesterly winds will continue to decrease through this evening and becoming light and variable overnight.

Tomorrow's forecast will be similar to what we have seen today although a few more clouds will be lingering around. The previously mentioned troughing pattern slides farther east and will pull its trailing surface cold front northward late Friday into Saturday. This northward retreat will help some moisture filter back into our neck of the woods and provide rain chances on Saturday. Based off latest NBM guidance, the strongest chances for precip remain across south-central MN. As of right now, any trick or treating plans do not appear to be a washout from rain but you may want to keep an umbrella handy. Saturday's temps will warm into the mid to upper-50s and lows near 50. Given those temps, at this point, it is safe to say we will dodge another 1991 Halloween Blizzard experience.

The next rain maker arrives early next week as a low develops on the lee side of the Rockies and is progged straight east. The current track of this low remains to our south however enough moisture looks to be in place to provide additional widespread rainfall. Although we are still few days out, 12z ensemble guidance appears to be in fair agreement that most locations could see QPF of at least 0.5" or greater by Tuesday morning. As for temps in the extend period, h850 temperatures continue to run at least 3-8 degrees warmer than seasonal normals which by this time range in low 50s/upper 40s while lows range in the 30s.

Aviation

Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR through the 00z period. Satellite captures a mid-level stratus deck between 9-10k feet across west-central MN. VFR stratus is forecast to spread east overnight and then lift north of the terminals by daybreak. High clouds overspread the region from the south Friday and winds turn easterly. MVFR cigs are forecast to approach RWF/MKT just beyond the the end of the period and will be included in forthcoming TAF packages.

KMSP: No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT: Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts. SUN: VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. MON: MVFR/-RA likely, mainly P.M. Wind SE 10-15kts.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MN: None. WI: None.