Arena, WI 53503 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

Day one: Overnight through Tonight

A few thunderstorms may linger into the overnight hours.

Days two through seven: Friday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Key messages

- A broken area of showers and a few storms will continue to move east through the area into the overnight hours. This activity may become less organized as it moves through southeast Wisconsin. It should exit to the southeast of the area early Thursday morning.

- Chances for rain (30 to 60 percent) are forecast Friday night into Saturday, with better chances (60 to 70 percent) early next week.

Short term

Issued 105 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Today through Tonight:

A cold front is expected to gradually shift eastward across the area overnight into this morning. Ahead of this feature, some warm air advection and an increasing low level jet should continue to support a broken area of showers and a few storms moving east through the area.

Gusty south to southwest winds overnight will veer northwest behind the passage of the cold front today. Gusty winds may occur into this afternoon. Cold air advection and drier air should bring clearing skies by later morning and afternoon. After temperatures fall into the 50s overnight, highs later today should reach the middle 60s over most of the area.

High pressure building into the area tonight, bringing quiet weather and decreasing winds. Lows tonight should drop into the middle to upper 30s, and around 40 close to the lake.

Wood

Long term

Issued 105 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

Oblong high pressure spanning from southern Manitoba into lower MI will reside over the region Friday, leading to light and variable winds inland and an easterly lake breeze. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s are expected. Meanwhile, a 500 mb trough/upper low over the central Great Plains will lift northeastward, allowing mostly cloudy skies to overspread the region. The associated rain shower chances gradually build into the CWA from southwest (late Friday afternoon) to northeast (Saturday). Dynamics with this upper trough are looking rather weak a this time. The supergeostrophic flow northeast of the approaching trough (which we will experience late Friday into early Friday night) features 500 mb flow of only about 35 knots (out of the west), trending slower and featuring variable directions as the upper trough moves overhead.

A complete lack of return flow ahead of this system at the surface, east winds off Lake Michigan, and the origin of this upper trough (south-central CONUS, no substantial cool air aloft and poor lapse rates) combine to keep instability very limited. A few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question yet, but potential for any stronger storms/organized severe weather is looking very low at this time. The majority of southern Wisconsin should stay dry through the daytime Friday, followed by increasing shower coverage from SW to NE Friday night, then some widespread 30 to 60 percent rain chances continuing through the daytime Saturday.

The 500mb trough breaks down across the Midwest through the weekend, with some continued slight rain chances (15 to 30 percent) but predominantly dry weather into Sunday. The 300 and 500 mb patterns then begin to amplify into early next week, featuring troughing over the Rocky Mountains and ridging over Wisconsin, with both features slowly drifting east.

A more organized rain-maker, likely a healthy surface low pressure system, it thus expected to cross our region at some point early to middle of next week, with the exact details to be determined. Continued above normal temperatures can be expected with the ridging ahead of this system early next week.

Sheppard

Aviation

Issued 105 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A cold front is expected to gradually shift eastward across the area overnight into this morning. Ahead of this feature, a broken area of showers and a few storms should continue to move east through the area overnight, exiting to the southeast around or after sunrise.

Ceilings may drop to around 2000 to 2500 feet AGL for a time with and after the cold frontal passage, with ceilings above 3500 feet AGL otherwise. Brief visibility reductions to 3 to 5 miles may occur with the showers.

Gusty south to southwest winds overnight will veer northwest behind the passage of the cold front this morning. Low level wind shear conditions are expected overnight into early this morning, with southwest winds around 45 knots at 2000 feet AGL.

Gusty northwest winds may occur later this morning into this afternoon. Clearing skies are expected by later morning and afternoon as well, lingering into tonight. High pressure building into the area tonight will bring quiet weather and decreasing winds.

Wood

Marine

Issued 105 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM CDT this morning north of Port Washington, for lingering gusty winds and building waves.

Low pressure around 29.9 inches will move northeast of Lake Superior overnight and to James Bay early on Thursday, deepening to around 29.5 inches. As the low travels northeast, it is expected to drag a cold front over the upper Great Lakes Region.

Breezy south to southwest winds are expected to increase overnight, and gusts will come within a few knots of gale force over the northern third of Lake Michigan. A few gusts to gale force are possible. A few thunderstorms will also be possible overnight, mainly over the southern half of the lake.

The cold front will pass over the lake during the morning hours Thursday, bringing winds around to northwesterly. Winds are expected to ease in strength following the frontal passage, but will remain modestly breezy into Thursday night. High pressure around 30.4 inches will move into the region Friday into Friday night, bringing lighter winds. South to southeast winds should then linger into early next week.

Wood

Watches, warnings and advisories

WI: None. LM: Small Craft Advisory: LMZ643 until 7 AM Thursday.