Milwaukee, WI 53221 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

Day one: Tonight

A few thunderstorms may occur later this evening into the overnight hours. Brief gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning are the main hazards, mainly in south central Wisconsin.

Days two through seven: Thursday through Wednesday

A few thunderstorms may occur early Thursday morning in far southeast Wisconsin.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Key messages

- A broken area of showers and a few storms should move east through the area mainly later this evening into the overnight hours, with the better chances (50 to 80 percent) over south central, central and east central Wisconsin. This activity may become less organized as it moves through southeast Wisconsin overnight.

- Main hazard with storms in western parts of the area would be cloud-to-ground lightning and brief gusty winds.

- Chances for rain are forecast Friday through the weekend into early next week. Best chances (50 to 60 percent) appear to be Friday night into Saturday morning.

Update

Issued 706 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A cold front is expected to gradually shift eastward across the area later tonight into Thursday morning. Ahead of this feature, some warm air advection and an increasing low level jet should continue to support showers and some storms in northeast Iowa shifting into southwest Wisconsin by middle to late evening.

This activity will continue to move into a less unstable environment, as nighttime sets in and forecast soundings show very skinny and increasingly elevated mean layer CAPE. Deep layer bulk shear is around 30 knots or so. Still, not anticipating any strong to severe storms to affect western parts of the area, as the thermodynamic profiles continue to become less supportive of convection. May see brief gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lighting with any lingering storms.

Will continue to have 50 to 80 percent chances for showers and a few storms in western parts of the area by later this evening into the overnight hours, with showers also moving into parts of central and east central Wisconsin overnight. This activity may become more scattered as it moves into southeast Wisconsin overnight, with thunder becoming isolated at best. Any lingering activity should move out of the area Thursday morning.

Northwest winds should bring drier air and clearing skies by midday into the afternoon. Lows tonight should be in the middle to upper 50s, with highs Thursday mainly in the middle 60s.

Wood

Short term

Issued 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

Low pressure is expected to move from Minnesota this afternoon to James Bay in Canada by tomorrow around dawn. As this low moves northeast through tonight, it is expected to drag a cold front over the state of Wisconsin. The rest of this afternoon and early this evening will be dry, but shower and scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to become more likely over southwest and central WI around and after 9pm tonight as the cold front approaches the upper MS Valley. Any thunderstorm activity is expected to be benign and pulse-like in nature, as MUCAPE is expected to be around 500 to 900 J/kg with a skinny CAPE profile, and effective bulk shear will be less than 15 knots.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will be most likely over southwest to east-central WI (50 to 70% PoPs), with some decrease in PoPs to 30 to 50% over southeast WI early Thursday, owing to weakening CAPE and some lingering dry air near the surface from an area of high pressure centered just south of the Ohio River Valley.

The front should clear southern WI by the mid morning hours, and dry air and subsidence following the front will allow for skies to clear form northwest to southeast by the early afternoon.

Highs will be cooler tomorrow owing to the front and will be in the low 60s over central to southwest WI. The highest temperatures near 70 are expected to be over southeast WI where it will take the longest for the front to clear and for cooler air to move in through tomorrow.

High pressure is then expected to move in through the remainder of Thursday and will linger into Friday. The high will likely keep the best chances for rain south of the WI/IL border through Friday as a sfc warm front sets up over western IL and back west into Iowa.

CMiller

Long term

Issued 151 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Saturday through Wednesday:

Better model agreement is present today for a wave of WAA and a warm front to bring rain chances (50 to 60% PoPs) during the first half of Saturday over most of southern WI. Rain chances then look to grow weaker Saturday afternoon (30% PoPs) and evening (15% PoPs) as the low to mid level warm advection becomes weaker and the forcing mechanisms for the rain taper off.

Rain chances then look more nebulous on Sunday as the GFS and ECMWF show rain over the eastern Corn Belt along a sfc trough while we remain dry, though these chances are not fair away from southern WI and may shift with time. As it stands, 15 to 30% pops are painted across the area for Sunday morning and afternoon.

Beyond, the GFS and ECMWF depict a multi-day rain maker arriving Monday and lingering into Wednesday or Thursday. Exact details need to be fleshed out but next week looks to remain mild and will feature more a more active weather pattern.

CMiller

Aviation

Issued 706 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A cold front is expected to gradually shift eastward across the area later tonight into Thursday morning. Ahead of this feature, showers and some storms in northeast Iowa will shift into southwest Wisconsin by middle to late evening.

This activity will continue to move into a less unstable environment. Not anticipating any strong to severe storms to affect western parts of the area.

Showers and a few storms are expected in western parts of the area by later this evening into the overnight hours, with showers also moving into parts of central and east central Wisconsin overnight. This activity may become more scattered as it moves into southeast Wisconsin overnight, with thunder becoming isolated at best. Any lingering activity should move out of the area Thursday morning.

Ceilings should gradually lower this evening, with mainly 2000 to 3000 foot AGL values with the main areas of showers later this evening into the early morning hours on Thursday. Localized visibility of 3 to 6 miles may occur with any showers. Ceilings should mix out by middle to late morning on the increasing northwest winds.

Gusty south to southwest winds are expected ahead of the cold front tonight, with winds shifting northwest behind it Thursday morning. The northwest winds may be gusty at times into the afternoon. A period of low level wind shear is also expected this evening into the overnight hours, with southwest winds around 45 knots at 2000 feet AGL.

Wood

Marine

Issued 140 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Low pressure of 29.9 inches will move northeast over Lake Superior tonight and to James Bay by dawn on Thursday, deepening to 29.5 inches. As the low travels northeast, it is expected to drag a cold front over the upper Great Lakes Region. Breezy southerly winds are expected to increase this evening as a tighter pressure gradient moves over the lake. Winds will become southwesterly with time tonight, and gusts will come within a few knots of gale force over the northern third of Lake Michigan. A few gusts to gale force can't be ruled out. Some thunderstorms will also be possible tonight, mainly over the southern half of the lake.

The cold front will pass over the lake during the post-dawn hours of the morning Thursday, bringing winds around to northwesterly. Winds are expected to ease in strength following the frontal passage but will remain modestly breezy with gusts to 20 knots through Thursday into Thursday night.

CMiller

Watches, warnings and advisories

WI: None. LM: Small Craft Advisory: LMZ643 until 7 AM Thursday.