Fairfield, IA 52557 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Illinois: northwest Illinois: west central Illinois: east central Iowa: northeast Iowa: southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri.

Day one: THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven: FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Thunderstorms will be possible Friday through Friday night. Strong to severe storms are not expected.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

Key messages

- Rain chances return today (peaking at 60-90% coverage tonight) and linger into Halloween morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today and tonight.

- An active weather pattern early next week will bring rain and breezy conditions to the region, including on Election Day.

Short term

Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A cloudy and potentially rainy day for much of the area as a warm front over central Missouri lifts northward. Isentropic upglide on the 295-305 K layer along with WAA around 850 mb will support scattered showers (30-50% coverage) and isolated thunderstorms this morning. By the early afternoon, these showers and storms try to move northeastward but dry air in the low levels is expected to limit coverage (10-20%) north of Highway 30. No severe weather is expected, but mostly cloudy skies will keep highs cooler in the mid-50s to low 60s.

After a brief dry period for much of the area, the warm front finally advances northward this evening into our CWA, prompting another round of more widespread showers (60-90% coverage) and isolated storms. Again, no severe weather is expected with this round with the only hazards being periods of heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder. With dew points climbing back into the mid-40s and low 50s, lows can only drop to those temperatures.

Heading into Halloween, the mid-level remnants of Tropical Depression Vance reaches the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi River Valley, keeping scattered showers (30-60% coverage) around through midday. Continued cloud cover will cooler highs again in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Once the subtropical trough passes Saturday night, shortwave ridging sets in for Sunday. Rainfall totals of 0.25-0.75 of an inch are likely (60-80% chance) through Saturday.

Long term

Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A mostly dry Sunday is in the cards with highs climbing into 60s areawide, but some may call this the calm before the storm. Moving into Sunday night, a longwave trough over the western CONUS propagates into the Rockies, deepening low pressure along the Front Range of Colorado and Wyoming. As this mid- latitude cyclone moves into the Central Plains, it will begin to turn to the northeast, but disagreements among the global ensembles still exist on rather the system tracks through the Dakotas/Minnesota or through Iowa. This will have major implications on the location of the warm sector, our rainfall potential, and even severe weather chances. Latest LREF guidance has PWATs across the CWA climbing near or above 1.5 inches (50-70% chance), close to the maximum of climatological values for the first week of November! Regardless of track though, PoPs start to increase on Monday afternoon and stick around into Wednesday night. General consensus among the ensembles favor a cold frontal passage between Tuesday night into Wednesday with northwesterly flow pumping in some cooler, more seasonable air for the end of next week.

Overall, there is great uncertainty in rainfall totals with this system. The latest LREF guidance shows a 1-inch spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles with the 01z NBM having a 60-80% chance of 1+ inches of rainfall through Wednesday morning. One thing is more certain: the winds. Prior to the cold frontal passage, southerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph are likely (70-90% chance) Monday afternoon into Wednesday. Gusts after Wednesday will be dependent on the track of the low pressure. Regardless of solution though, a more active pattern compared the last few weeks is in store.

Aviation

Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are forecasted over the next 24 hours. An approaching warm front will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to area this morning, impacting BRL and possibly reaching CID and MLI. With the heaviest showers and storms, visibilities could drop to MVFR conditions (3-5 SM) for a period of time. Another round of showers and storms is likely to develop in the late afternoon and evening south of Highway 34 and move northward. Uncertainty in timing and coverage of these showers and storms has lead to only a PROB30 being included for BRL between 20 UTC and 00 UTC at this issuance. In terms of winds, light northeasterly winds will turn easterly after sunrise and pick up to 7-12 knots. A few gusts could approach 20 knots at BRL and CID, but not prevailing.

Watches, warnings and advisories

IA: None. IL: None. MO: None.