Harris, IA 51345 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and early evening hours. The severe weather risk is low.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NWS Sioux Falls will discontinue the Hazardous Weather Outlook product (HWO) on November 8, 2026. Weather hazards and outlooks will continue to be provided through other standard NWS products, including weather briefing packets, forecast discussions, weather story graphics, the graphical hazardous weather outlook, and updated hazard messaging. All local products and visual tools are accessible directly at: weather.gov/siouxfalls.

Key messages

- Rain chances return to portions of southeastern SD and southwestern MN this afternoon. Confidence is highest (50-85%) along and east of the Sisseton Hills where isolated thunderstorms are possible.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for isolated severe storms this afternoon east of Interstate 29 through western MN. Main threats include 1" diamater hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

Discussion

Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Over the next couple of hours, showers and storms are expected to develop over parts of eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota ahead of a cold front. Cannot entirely rule out the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms, although the best environment will be to the northeast further into Minnesota. Still, a Marginal Risk clips the northeastern-most part of the forecast area, and hail is the main potential severe threat. Strong storms that do develop in that area are expected to exit the forecast area fairly quickly this afternoon. Further south, expectations are that showers will remain fairly light, and just a few hundredths of rain will fall.

Behind the cold frontal passage, a high pressure center will move into the area overnight tonight. After an initial shift to the northwest, winds will become light and variable overnight tonight as the high pressure center moves overhead. There is some signal in high-resolution guidance for some fog development once again tonight due to the light winds and clear skies promoting strong radiative cooling. The main area of concern for fog development is over southeastern South Dakota, particularly the James River Valley. Confidence in the areal coverage is still somewhat low at the moment, but pockets of dense fog may reduce visibility below a mile at times.

The next chances for rain come on Friday into Saturday. Rainfall will move in from the south beginning Friday before expanding to cover the entire forecast area Friday night into Saturday. Generally light rain rates are expected, but perhaps a quarter of an inch or more (20-40%) could fall over parts of northwestern Iowa, northeastern Nebraska, and southwestern South Dakota.

Another low pressure system is set to move into the region early next week, bringing renewed chances for rain into the region. Monday through early Wednesday, chances are fairly high (50-70%, increasing moving from north to south across the forecast area) to see an inch of rainfall accumulation or more. However, there is still significant uncertainty with this system in timing, location, and amounts. 25th/75th spread is generally around two inches for that same time period, so still a lot to resolve as the system comes into focus over the next couple of days.

Aviation

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A cold front moves into the forecast area this afternoon, progressing from northwest to southeast through the rest of the days today. Out ahead of teh cold front for the next couple of hours, expectations are for coverage of showers to weak thunderstorms to expand. The greatest chances for storms will be into southwestern Minnesota, but confidence is not high enough in thunderstorms developing over the TAF sites to include a thunder mention in the TAFs. Have included a TEMPO group for showers at KFSD and a PROB30 group at KSUX (as confidence is a little bit lower there) to capture the rain shower potential.

Otherwise, low stratus deck remains in place, and ceilings as low as LIFR have been observed. As the front moves through, ceilings will gradually improve, gradually clearing out late this evening into tonight. Behind the front also comes a wind shift to the northwest this evening, with winds becoming light and variable as a high pressure center moves overhead. With the clearing, low winds, and high humidity overnight, there is some signal for fog development early Thursday morning. Model coverage appears somewhat scattered at the moment, so confidence is again not quite high enough to intorduce reduced visibilities into the TAFs just yet. However, category reductions to IFR or lower due to visibility will be possible.

Watches, warnings and advisories

SD: None. MN: None. IA: None. NE: None.