Chatham, MI 49825 Weather

Key messages

- Dry, cool, and breezy today behind a cold front. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s most locations, warmer near Lake Michigan.

- Mainly dry weather continues through the weekend. Highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday, warming into the low 60s on Sunday.

- Precipitation chances increase again early to mid next week, but with low forecast confidence.

Discussion

Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Radar imagery shows a band of light rain with some embedded heavier showers moving through the eastern UP early this morning. This activity is ahead of a cold front currently analyzed over the central UP as of 2 AM Thursday, extending from a 1002 mb surface low crossing northern Ontario. Embedded thunderstorms with abundant lightning strikes were observed over the western and central UP last evening, but the thunder threat has ended as instability wanes overnight with eastward extent. The last of the rain should exit the far eastern UP around daybreak, making for a dry, cool, and breezy day in the post frontal environment. High temperatures will plummet by 15-20 degrees compared to yesterday across most of the area as 850 mb temps crash down from 10 to 12 C yesterday to -3 to -5 C by this afternoon, corresponding to highs in the upper 40s in the west and the low to mid 50s elsewhere. Temps will be a bit warmer closer to Lake Michigan, with highs around 60 degrees expected. Cold air advection and pressure rises behind the front will also create breezy conditions with west-northwest winds today. Expect 25-35 mph gusts to be common near Lake Superior today, with 15-20 mph gusts expected across the southern tier of the UP. Although most of the UP will stay dry behind the front, some of the hi-res guidance does hint at some lake effect rain developing over the east later today into tonight as colder air advects over the still relatively warm (10-12 C) waters of eastern Lake Superior. Will thus maintain 15-20% PoPs over parts of Luce and eastern Alger Counties, but any rainfall from these showers would be minimal.

Friday will be a similar day across the area, but with lighter winds as surface high pressure continues to build in from the northern Plains and moves directly overhead. High temperatures will once again be in the upper 40s to mid 50s across most of the area. High pressure lingers over the Great Lakes through the weekend, yielding a gradual moderating trend in the temperatures with highs more solidly in the 50s on Saturday and perhaps approaching the low 60s by Sunday. A weak disturbance passing south of the area could bring a slight chance for some showers late Saturday into early Sunday, but generally expect most locations to stay dry into the weekend. Guidance continues to hint at a stronger system moving out of the Plains and approaching the Great Lakes during the early part of next week as a deep upper level trough digs over the central CONUS. There remains a high degree of ensemble spread with regard to the precise details of track, timing and intensity of this system, lending below average confidence to the forecast. Have therefore utilized a broad- brushed, NBM heavy approach with chance PoPs covering the early to middle part of next week until details start to come into better focus.

Aviation

Issued at 738 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR lake effect cigs hold at all 3 TAF sites through most of the day with periods of VFR possible at SAW this afternoon. Otherwise with no precipitation in the forecast, gusty westerlies are expected through the entire day, reaching speeds of 15-30 kts (greatest at CMX). Winds gradually fall below 15 kts late tonight.

Marine

Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Lake Superior: Winds shift west-northwesterly today behind the departing cold front and increase to 25-30 kt across much of the lake through this afternoon, aided by cold air advection and relatively modest pressure rises. NBM guidance continues to highlight east-central parts of the lake for potential gales this afternoon, but there remains significant discrepancies between the probabilistic datasets as HREF, REFS, and EPS all keep gale probs to 20% or less today. Although there will likely be at least some low end gale force gusts observed today in the waters bounded by roughly Stannard Rock, the Huron Island, and Grand Marais, have opted against a Gale Warning given the relatively sparse coverage and lower probs amongst non NBM guidance. Small craft headlines remain in effect for all Lake Superior nearshores through this evening in the west and early Friday in the east. Winds diminish below 20 kt from west to east through Friday morning as high pressure builds over the region. Winds are expected to remain below 20 kts through early next week with continued high pressure influence. Significant wave heights increase to 4-8 ft in the west and 6-11 ft in the east by this afternoon, then settle below 4 ft from west to east through Friday morning.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Small crafts end over the bay early this morning but linger in the nearshore zones through early this afternoon as southerly winds shift westerly at 10-15 kt behind the cold front, with waves of 3-4 ft in the bay and 5-7 ft in northern Lake Michigan this morning settling below 4 ft by later this afternoon. Lighter winds are expected Friday through this weekend and into early next week as high pressure moves over the Great Lakes.

Watches, warnings and advisories

Upper Michigan: None. Lake Superior: None. Lake Michigan: None.