Elsie, MI 48831 Weather

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

Day one: Today and Tonight

An isolated thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon across Southeast Michigan in advance of a cold front. Severe weather is not anticipated.

Days two through seven: Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Key messages

- There is a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. No severe weather is anticipated.

- Dry this weekend with temperatures some 7 to 12 degrees above normal.

- Warm conditions with humidity will be possible early to middle next week.

Aviation

Departing cold front is drawing the narrow band of frontal moisture out of the airspace, leaving behind clear skies and veering winds. Stratus plume noted over the Upper Peninsula expands south through the overnight, and will brush the Saginaw Valley early Friday morning. This may initially allow MVFR restrictions to develop, although clears out through the morning as mixing occurs. Light northwest flow then prevails for the day as high cloud streams in from the west.

D21/DTW Convection: Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF period.

Dtw threshold probabilities

* Medium for cigs at or below 5000 ft through 02z.

Prev discussion

Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

DISCUSSION:

A surface cold front associated with the northeast Canada low pressure system will work through Southeast Michigan between 19-01z today. Moisture progs in the plan view continue to suggest that deeper thetae content and saturation resides in an extremely narrow ribbon that is only approximately a few tens of miles across. The limited moisture will significantly limit the coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show residual stability holding with the midlevel dry air only becoming conditionally unstable with the arrival of the aforementioned moisture/saturation between 3.0 and 10.0 kft agl. MUCAPE is projected to reach 200 J/kg MUCAPE. A few embedded non-severe thunderstorms will be possible before 01z.

Strongly increasing anticyclonic flow trajectories with notable anticyclonic hemispheric scale roll to the height field will lead to very stable weather Friday and Saturday. High confidence that surface ridging will hold on right through the weekend resulting in dry weather. An inverted troughing feature into portions of northern Illinois and as close as the southern rim of Lake Michigan may provide for a good amount of cloud immediately upstream and even over Southeast Michigan Saturday. Incredible stretch of good Autumn weather continues with highs in the 60s through Sunday, some 7 to 12 degrees above normal.

Uncertainty increases for the beginning of next week with regards to timing of shortwave energy. Antecedent dry air will limit widespread precipitation early Monday as a secondary surge in warm air advection occurs. By late Monday and early Tuesday, timing and approach of the longwave trough suggests southerly flow will be on the increase as well as the low level jet. Clouds are undoubtedly a huge influence on temperatures but given projections of the ridge structure, highs reaching 70 early next week is a definite possibility. The current forecast begins to ramp up PoPs early Tuesday and that seems adequate. No significant wind episode is anticipated in the next 7 days.

MARINE:

Wind direction will veer from west-southwest to northwest in the wake of a cold front. Mixing depths will improve behind the front and will mix down some of the stronger air aloft, producing wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots across Lake Huron tonight and through tomorrow. Localized gust potential around 30 knots will be possible across north and north-central lake Huron where fetch is more favorable. High pressure to then build in Friday and Saturday across the Great Lakes which will rapidly reduce wind speeds tomorrow evening, leading to light winds for the weekend.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MI: None. Lake Huron: None. Lake St Clair: None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie: None.