Ashley, MI 48806 Weather

Key messages

- Slight Chances for Rain Saturday

- Warmer Than normal Trends trough the week

- Unsettled weather ahead with several precip chances next week

Discussion

Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Slight Chances for Rain Saturday

A negatively tilted ridge will continue to build as it extends from the southeast US across the Great Plains and the upper midwest into Southern Canada. This is further amplified with high pressure through the mid levels to the sfc. While the upper level ridge will maintain, the mid level and sfc high pressure will erode as a short wave perturbation creeps through the upper level ridge, bringing warm air advection from the southwest tomorrow. That trough will have some mid level moisture that has been the reason for some consternation for tomorrow given any precipitation chances. As that moisture creeps into southern Lower from the southwest tomorrow, there could be enough mid level instability to allow for some isolated showers tomorrow. While overall the precipitation chances continues to dwindle, the mid to near range guidance is showing slightly better chances, around 15 to 30 percent, and that would be early Saturday morning and late Saturday evening, after 8 PM. Any rainfall amounts will be light, with less than a tenth of precipitation expected.

- Warmer Than normal Trends trough the week

While we fall behind in time this weekend, and we enter into November, the warm seasonal temperatures continue. An large upper level low will pass through the intermountain west and deepen as it moves through the Great Plains. The flow out ahead of this system will keep the warm conveyor belt continuing through the week. While any precip that we discuss below will bring some cooling effects, overall temperatures will remain around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Max temperatures will warm through the weekend, and will be in the mid to upper 60s through the week. Lows temperatures overall are trending 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Lows along and north of the US 10 corridor will be at or below freezing tonight. Otherwise, Low temps will rebound to above freezing and remain there through most of the week.

- Unsettled weather ahead with several precip chances next week

The above mentioned upper level low will be driving the weather pattern over the next week. That low will bring several chances for precipitation, the first being with a warm frontal band out ahead of the low. There is a weak wave aloft, along with some 500 mb vort maxes that correspond to a mid level negatively tilted short wave that will pass through the Great Lakes region late Monday into Tuesday. While flow is divergent, NAEFS has PWATS advecting through the Upper Peninsula, northern Lower and the northern portion of southern Michigan. Anomalous PWATS of around 1.25 inches will linger over the state Tuesday. Both the GFS, EC and various ensembles show this trend. Given the current locations, this should bring showers along and northward of the I 96 corridor. This could envelop the rest of the state if the moisture shifts slightly to the south. While the models begin to diverge in a consensus, there remains a trend for the open wave to have a cold front pass through the area Wednesday into Thursday with strong flow behind hit. There isn't much CAPE associated with this system at this time and 850 mb temps behind the from range from +6 to +9 C so not expecting snow with little chance for thunder.

Aviation

Issued at 153 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR categories and light winds are expected at all terminals throughout the 18Z TAF period. While a brief period of fog developed early this morning at AZO, increasing mid/high clouds should decrease the potential for a repeat tonight (and prevent it at other terminals as well). While some very light showers are possible (mainly at AZO/BTL) near the end of the period, the potential for terminals impacts is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Marine

Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Fairly light northwesterly flow continues today. Fair winds and calmer waves will continue with winds shifting to offshore tonight into Saturday morning. Winds will slightly increase tomorrow afternoon but will be far below criteria. Southerly flow will continue through Sunday. Next chance for any advisory criteria won't be until next week.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MI: None. MARINE: None.