Lost Lake Woods, MI 48762 Weather

Key messages

- Early morning showers/storms will diminish this morning, and will be gone by early afternoon.

- A chance for showers eastern upper MI tonight.

- Warm today, cooler Friday, then warming again.

Discussion

Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Band of showers, with a few embedded TSRA, is advancing across northern MI at this hour. This is just ahead of a surface cold front, which extends from central upper MI to central WI. This front moves across northern MI today, exiting the far se late this afternoon.

Lightning activity has decreased drastically since convection was back in WI. Near-term guidance argues for this weakening to continue (and accelerate) early this morning, as the low-level jet continues veering and become more parallel to the incoming cold front. Expect the convection band to break apart and diminish in coverage/intensity over the next several hours. By the time we reach sunrise/8am, western Chip/Mack Cos should be comfortably behind what's left of our precip (and thus dry), but the rest of the area will contend with a chance for showers. Significant mid-level subsidence/drying expands across the rest of northern MI this morning/midday. All precip should exit by 1-2 pm, with a partly to mostly sunny day after that. However, heading into tonight, colder air makes a stronger push. 850mb temps drop several degrees below 0C on Superior tonight. It is on the dry side still, but better moisture with a trailing shortwave is not that away over northern Ontario. Some lake effect rain showers will develop into the eastern UP tonight, especially Chippewa Co.

Pretty quiet again to end the work week and thru the weekend. Surface high pressure moves from sw Canada, to and across the Great Lakes. A 500mb ridge axis, starting out from the central plains to Canadian prairie, will gradually work eastward. It looks to be overhead by Monday. Though low-level southerly return flow will be with us thru the weekend into early next week, the building ridge aloft will make it difficult to get more than just a stray weak shower. But as the upper ridge heads east, better rain chances return Monday night thru the rest of the forecast. Both the northern and southern streams have significant energy working eastward. The degree of interaction between these is not yet known, but there is increasing potential for one or more wound-up systems in the central/ eastern states mid-to-late next week.

After another mild day today (not at warm as yesterday for most, except near Saginaw Bay), a noticeable but brief cooldown occurs Friday. We turn that right around to well above normal again beginning Saturday, into at least early next week. Temp trends by late next week look considerably less certain. But this forecast is still reaching several days into Nov without needing so much as a mention of that evil 'S' word.

Aviation

Issued at 1021 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Expect southwest flow low level wind shear to near 50 knots to end from west to east heading into this morning. Band of showers, mostly light, will spread across the area early this morning. May have a few rumbles of thunder, but not expecting anything significant. Band of lower cigs to MVFR expected to follow behind this rain this morning, with cigs scattering out through the later morning and afternoon across northern lower Michigan. MVFR producing lake clouds look to impact KCIU through much of the day. Gusty southwest winds become west and northwest today, with winds decreasing this afternoon and especially this evening.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MI: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.