Bay City, MI 48708 Weather

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

Day one: This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven: Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Key messages

- Dry today with cooler temperatures compared to recent days.

- Mild temperatures return through the rest of the week highlighted by highs around 70 Wednesday and in the lower to mid 70s Thursday.

- There is a chance of showers Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

- Dry and continued mild Friday.

Aviation

Wind direction in the Detroit vicinity has backed toward the NE in recent observations, limiting the amount of lake moisture flux with dewpoints falling into the mid-40s. Combined with the mid-upper level cloud still streaming in aloft, prevailing fog is looking less likely and if it does occur will be confined to a smaller time window near sunrise. MVFR restrictions do remain possible, although confidence has decreased. Much higher confidence in wind direction veering to the southwest Wednesday morning as a wave tracks across the Great Lakes. Drier air moves in aloft to result in clearing skies by afternoon. High pressure influence wanes into Wednesday night as the next low and cold front pair organize upstream.

D21/DTW Convection: Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF period.

Dtw threshold probabilities

* Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft through Wednesday morning.

Prev discussion

Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

DISCUSSION:

High pressure centered over the Ontario/Quebec border will progress east/southeast into New England as a shortwave trough moves in from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. This combination will drive a warm front across Michigan tomorrow with low-level flow veering from southeast to southwest in the wake of the front. This will usher in warmer temperatures tomorrow and Thursday with forecasted highs peaking in the 70s. For this evening, stable conditions maintain dry weather under broken mid to high level cloud cover. Overnight, there is a weak to moderate signal for shallow fog or very low-lying stratus focused on a convergent boundary as the aforementioned winds start veering. Any fog/stratus would be most prominent around or near Ann Arbor and into the urban Metro and north Metro region, factoring in shallow moisture advection from Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair. The one caveat for fog development will be the arrival and thickening of mid-level cloud cover ahead of the approaching shortwave. Some sprinkles or a weak rain shower cannot be ruled out with the arrival of this wave. Some secondary fog chances will be possible across the Tri-Cities, coinciding with a brief period of more effective radiational cooling as the trailing edge of the mid- level cloud shield exits, but this will trend very close to daybreak. Any fog or shallow stratus will rapidly erode after daybreak under the established southwest flow.

The next chance for rain showers will enter Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front progresses across SE MI. There will be a ribbon of enhanced theta-e ahead of the front bringing precipitation chance for all locations. The better moisture is confined to 925 to 750mb and overall forcing remains weak. This will limit coverage and will produce weak qpf output for any showers observed, with totals ranging between trace amounts up to several hundredths of an inch with any rain observed. Otherwise, breezy conditions just ahead and in the wake of the front with gusts around 25 to 30 mph expected. Passage of the front will moderate temperatures slightly to end the week but above normal conditions are still expected with highs in the low to mid 60s. Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend and into early next week.

MARINE:

East winds to veer southeast to southwest tonight and overnight after the passage of a warm front. Winds generally remain light in the wake of the front with some localized higher gust found within the north-central portion of Lake Huron, where fetch is more favorable. A cold front is then on track to progress over the Great Lakes on Thursday which will continue to veer winds from southwest to northwest. Prior to the arrival of the cold front, breezy southwest flow with gusts around 25 knots will be likely on Thursday, especially through central Lake Huron. The better gust potential will then transition towards northern Lake Huron late Thursday into Friday morning as flow veers to the northwest. High pressure then builds in this weekend, leading to a period of light winds into early next week.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MI: None. Lake Huron: None. Lake St Clair: None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie: None.