Brown City, MI 48416 Weather

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

Day one: Today and Tonight

An isolated thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon across Southeast Michigan in advance of a cold front. Severe weather is not anticipated.

Days two through seven: Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Key messages

- Much above normal temperatures continue today with highs again into the 70s. These high temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- There is a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

- Dry and continued mild this weekend.

Discussion

A cold front will sweep across lower MI today between about 18Z and 00Z bringing with it a scattered showers and gusty southwesterly winds. The front was meridional passing through MN and WI today with strong fgen and a strong low level jet feeding the front. As the surface low tracks from Lake Superior tonight up to western Quebec by this afternoon, it will drag the front through the area which will become increasingly more positively tilted. The fgen weakens and becomes disorganized and the low level jet lifts northeastward away from lower MI. A weak mid level wave will move into the area as the front passes this afternoon which will help daytime heating to bring very weak instability over the area with MUCAPE up to a couple hundred J/kg. Lapse rates are still in the 6-7 C/km range for the most part in the narrow moist layer ahead of the front. Expectations are for scattered showers to move into Saginaw Valley this morning before spreading south and east across the area with the front through the afternoon. A few embedded non-severe thunderstorms may accompany the showers, especially later this afternoon around the Detroit area as the front tries to re-intensify before exiting to the southeast.

High temperatures will rise into the 70s once more today with the later frontal passage. The next ridge building in behind the front out of Canada will bring a cooler airmass with 850mb temps down to around 5C. Lows tonight will respond dropping into the mid to upper 30s for most locations away from the Detroit heat island. Highs Friday will then struggle to hit 60s, which is actually still above normal for late October. Mostly clear skies to start Friday night will allow for a quick drop in temps once again down to around freezing in the Thumb. Clouds will start filling back in across the south so will limit the cooling potential closer to the Ohio border so lows may struggle to drop below 40.

The aforementioned clouds are associated with a southern stream front lifting into the Ohio Valley. Elevated portions will extend toward southern MI but strong surface high and overall upper level height rises will result in strong stability and prevent precip from making it into southeast MI. This ridging will hold into the new week keeping temperatures running above normal through this time. The next system slated to enter the region Tuesday.

Marine

Strong southwest low level jet tracking through the central Great Lakes early this morning. However, the warm advection pattern is helping to limit mixing depths and stronger winds from reaching the surface. Nonetheless, still expecting gusts at or above 25 knots, most prevalent over Central Lake Huron extending back into Saginaw Bay. A Small Craft Advisory remains in early this afternoon for these wind gusts. Offshore flow, however, should keep waves mostly in the 2 to 4 foot range however.

Behind the cold front, wind speeds look to be maximized over northern Lake Huron where cold advection is most robust. 850 MB temps progged to fall below zero Thursday night, promoting deeper mixing and northwest gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Confidence is high in a period of 25 to 30 knot gusts over northern Lake Huron. High pressure quickly builds into the central Great Lakes Friday afternoon, setting up lighter winds and dry conditions over the weekend.

Prev discussion

Issued at 1144 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

AVIATION:

Cloud cover increases late tonight into Thursday morning as a cold front pushes east from Wisconsin into Lower Michigan. While moisture quality associated with the front wanes as it encounters a drier airmass and decreasing low level jet influence, remnant moisture will be capable of producing showers initially at MBS as early as ~10z. This decaying band of showers will mark the lead edge of lowering VFR ceilings, which may briefly dip below 3.0 kft right along the frontal passage. Broken shower activity is also expected invof the front, with a low chance of a thunderstorm as lapse rates approach 6.5 C/km. Wind direction will gradually veer from its current southerly direction to southwest Thursday morning before veering more aggressively to the northwest in the afternoon-evening with the frontal passage. Clearing skies and calmer northwest flow emerge late Thursday evening in the post-front environment, although the cooler NW flow will activate moisture flux off the lakes that may result in expansion of low stratus toward the airspace at the end of the TAF period.

D21/DTW Convection: Marginal instability will accompany a cold front passage Thursday afternoon-evening. There is a low chance a few thunderstorms may develop along the front.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES:

* Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet Thursday afternoon and evening.

* Low for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening (mainly 20z to 00z).

Watches, warnings and advisories

MI: None. Lake Huron: Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-422- 441.

Lake St Clair: None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie: None.