Manchester, MI 48158 Weather

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

Day one: Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven: Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Key messages

- Mild temperatures return today and continue Thursday with highs in the 70s. These high temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- There is a chance of showers Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

- Dry and continued mild Friday.

Aviation

Early morning observations indicate a warm front extending eastward from Midwest low pressure to very near the west end of Lake Erie at forecast issuance. Easterly flow just ahead of the front and off the Lake lifted surface Td into the lower 50s at KTOL and KTTF which presents a short time window for MVFR fog/stratus as mid level clouds strip away and before the front moves quickly northward. SW surface wind traces the onset of VFR warm sector conditions under patchy mid and high clouds and late day shallow cumulus. These clouds also exit eastward or dissipate leaving clear sky and mild SW wind this evening. The eastern fringe of mid level clouds associated with the Midwest cold move in late tonight and the cold front approaches the MBS area toward sunrise Thursday.

D21/DTW Convection: Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF period.

Dtw threshold probabilities

* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less early this morning.

Prev discussion

Issued at 342 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

DISCUSSION:

Much above normal temperatures today as highs reach into the lower 70s behind a warm front lifting northward through Michigan. Normal highs for the end of October are in the upper 50s so we'll be 10-15 degrees above normal. The front is running up against a very dry airmass with the persistent surface ridging that has been over the region for several days now so will pass with little in the way of showers. There were a few overnight over SW lower aided by a eastward tracking mid level wave, but were not able to drift much eastward into SE MI. Surface ridge will be sliding southeast through the day keeping us on the western side of it with increasingly southwesterly flow. This added warm air advection will help stabilize the airmass and provide the added boost in temperatures over the mid to upper 60s we've been experiencing.

Best chance of rain in a couple weeks comes Thursday as a low coming together over the Canadian Plains tracks east across Ontario within an increasingly more zonal mid level flow pattern. Models have been pretty consistent with this system, showing a strong low level jet flaring up across IA and WI tonight with the stacked mid level wave and surface low over western Lake Superior produce a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms tonight. The forcing will get pulled north of the area as the system progresses east so by the time the cold front makes it to SE MI we'll have the decreasing LLJ at around 35 knots with a narrow corridor of theta e and fgen. Mid level lapse rates are not overly impressive in the 6 C/km range with most models offering no CAPE. PWATs do jump up to around an inch with the ribbon of moisture ahead of the front so could still see some showers. We're continuing with a chance of showers Thursday across the area with mainly a 30-40 pop resulting in less than a tenth of QPF.

High pressure builds in from Canada behind the front bringing cooler temps (850mb around 7-8C) and dry conditions Friday. Highs Friday will be in the low 60s with lows both Thursday and Friday nights dipping into the upper 30s for many locations. As the ridge tried to become re-established across the Plains heading into the weekend, there is remnants of a southern stream wave drifting into the Ohio Valley which will push a warm front back near the state line. GFS is much more bullish on the strength of this feature that the ECMWF, so at this point will expect increasing clouds with the front nearby and possibility of some showers Saturday near the state line. Overall the ridging will keep the region mild with above normal max temps in the 60s most of the forecast.

MARINE:

Winds veer easterly in the wake of a warm front this morning with modest speeds (10-15 knots) over Lake Huron, but gradient winds should be weaker (less than 10 knots) across the southern waterways. The post-frontal environment favors headline-free marine conditions through this evening with minimal gustiness as forecast soundings reveal adequate low-level stability. A cold front will approach The Straits tonight, and then track across the remaining waterways on Thursday. A stronger wind field will accompany this boundary with a post-frontal shift to northwesterly flow. Gales are unlikely as the supporting low-level winds appear out of phase with the inevitable stability adjustments from ensuing cold advection. However, a period of Small Craft Advisory gusts and/or wave heights could develop for the portions of the southern Lake Huron nearshore zones. High pressure then builds in for Friday and Saturday which eventually results in weaker winds. Models diverge in the placement and track of a low pressure system early next week.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MI: None. Lake Huron: None. Lake St Clair: None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie: None.