South Bend, IN 46628 Weather

Key messages

- A few showers or sprinkles are possible Thursday.

- Showers are possible at times over the weekend, with the best chances on Sunday. Forecast confidence for this period remains low.

- Cooler, but still above normal temperatures, arrive Thursday and persist into next week.

Discussion

Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Increasing southwesterly flow has allowed a return to temperatures in the 70s with some increase in near surface (950 mb and lower per 12Z KILX sounding). Further increase in moisture will await the arrival of a cold front and a narrow swath of increased isentropic lift and lower CPDs to bring some potential for isolated to scattered showers (maybe a storm) Thursday. Greatest lift seems to exist during the afternoon, which would coincide with peak heating (although clouds may hamper that to some extent). Toned down likely pops in NW to higher chance for now.

The passage of the front will bring a push of CAA, essentially cutting off 10 degrees or so from the high temps we have enjoyed over the past several days. This is still above normal for the end of Oct. Sfc high pressure will build across the Great Lakes, keeping the warm and moist conditions just to our south through the upcoming weekend. Depending on the final resting place of the stationary front and fluctuations in its location, some chance for showers does remain in this period. By no means is there expected to be a washout and Halloween activities appear to be mostly dry.

Models are in agreement on an upper low moving to the Pacific NW shores by 18Z Sat. From here differences increase as a series on northern and southern stream waves either eject from this upper low or move into the SW US. GFS remains the most aggressive with a deeper upper low over OK by 6Z Wed, vs the EC/GEM that have a similar location but much weaker. Suffice to say, plenty of moisture will push north with this system but the timing of specific impacts to our area remain in doubt at this point.

Aviation

Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

With surface high pressure to the east and a shortwave traversing the northern Great Lakes, this pushes a cold front into the region towards the end of the taf period. With this setup, a low level jet pushes through the area Thursday morning. This keeps winds excited over night and could allow for a quick period of marginally significant LLWS. At this point, it is just weak enough to keep it out of the tafs. This jet could still allow a 20 kt gust during peak heating at FWA. Otherwise, with the FROPA, some rain will be possible and have added a prob30 group for lowered flight conditions. It is very possible this group is removed at the next issuance.

Watches, warnings and advisories

IN: None. OH: None. MI: None. MARINE: None.