South Bend, IN 46613 Weather

Key messages

- 30% to 65% chance of scattered showers this afternoon then will diminish as the cold front continues to move southeast through the area.

- Cooler this weekend but still above-normal temperatures to closeout the month of October.

- 20 to 40% chance of showers on Halloween, mainly west of the I-69 corridor.

- Active weather still looks likely later for the second half of the workweek next week.

Discussion

Issued at 153 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Cold frontal boundary currently draped from southwest to northeast across the northwestern portions of the CWA. Current radar imagery, 2PM EDT, does show some scattered rain showers along it's spine and look for some increase in activity as the afternoon goes on and the front moves southeastward. By this evening the rain showers should become less likely as the diurnal surface heating decreases. Not much in the form of rainfall amounts is expected but a quick trace to a hundredth or so will be the most likely outcome where the showers do occur.

Friday will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and cooler with a more northerly surface flow in place behind the front and weak synoptic ridging pushing through before a weak trough skirts the western portions of the CWA on Saturday which may bring a few rain showers to the area. Still thinking that any showers will be light and should not really make a big impact on the Halloween activities. A few showers look to linger into Sunday but again amounts look very light especially with these disturbances needing to moisten up the surface layer before any precip can be realized at the surface.

The more impactful weather looks to occur next week, there is still quite a bit of disagreement in the exact evolution and the synoptic pattern will be fairly complicated with a split stream with a southern and northern circulation. It does still appear that both systems will phase late Wednesday through Thursday and this looks to combine and develop a fairly deep trough circulation over the Great Lakes region bringing much cooler air associated with a strong cold front that looks to increase chances of convection with possibly a strong to severe outcome. This far out though and with the guidance still at odds this is not a sure outcome but certainly something to watch in the coming days when more details can be sorted out.

Aviation

Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Cold frontal passage with accompanying scattered light rain showers and MVFR cigs moving from northwest to southeast through this evening. Cigs look to improve to VFR after 09z Friday for KSBN and 12z for KFWA. Northwesterly winds will veer more northerly late tonight behind the frontal passage.

Watches, warnings and advisories

IN: None. OH: None. MI: None. MARINE: None.