Indianapolis city (balance), IN 46229 Weather

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

Day one

Through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Key messages

- Mostly Sunny and Cooler today.

- Best rain chances return Saturday Night into Sunday.

- Mild and wet pattern likely Monday through Thursday.

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday): Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

This afternoon:

Skies remain mainly clear after last night's cold front with temperatures suppressed by about 10 degrees. Highs so far have been in the low to mid 60s with expected temps near 70 later this afternoon. Overall, winds out of the northeast should keep weak cold air advection in place through the day today. Additionally, dry air advection continues with dew points a few degrees lower than guidance due to efficient boundary layer mixing.

Clouds increase and thicken overnight keeping temperatures warmer than previous nights. Most locations should expect to see lows in the 50s but portions of our northeast may dip into the 40s. A few showers may even creep into our northwestern counties late in the night. Overall, precipitation chances should remain low and amounts light if any.

The culprit is a weak trough ejecting into the Plains this afternoon. This feature is interacting with a tropical moisture plume associated with the remnants of Hurricane Vance. Guidance shows the trough weakening as it lifts northeastward towards Indiana. Trends within guidance have been towards a drier solution over the past few days. Our best chances of rainfall are late Saturday into Sunday with the primary trough axis swinging through.

Monday through Friday:

An active pattern with repeated rounds of precipitation is likely through next week. The upper level trough associated with the expected rainfall this weekend will be exiting the region early Monday morning. A few lingering showers are possible Monday with PWATs around 1.3 inches and dew points in the mid-to-upper 50s across Indiana in the wake of the trough.

At the same time, models suggest a secondary upper level trough will start to evolve over the Great Plains. An associated strong surface low within the broader cyclonic flow regime will advect unseasonably moist air into the region from the Gulf, with PWATs around 1.5 inches and dew points potentially in the lower 60s. Coupled with 50- 55 kt SW flow at 500mb and strong isentropic ascent, sufficient moisture and lift exists for rain and a thunderstorm or two across the region starting on Tuesday and lasting through Wednesday.

However, there is model uncertainty of the evolution of the trough as Thursday approaches. While the GEFS and EPS ensembles show the surface low exiting Indiana into Thursday morning, bringing cooler and drier air behind it, the GFS indicates the potential of a split flow regime may develop. In tangent to the split flow regime, a secondary surface low may form in portions of the mid MS valley bringing another wave of broad cyclonic flow across indiana. The new surface low could bring another wave of unseasonably moist air and more isentropic ascent. If this scenario were to happen, expect additional rainfall and isolated thunderstorms for Thursday. Rainfall totals through Thursday will range from 0.75-1.75 in depending on the evolution and speed of the upper level through.

By Friday, any precipitation will move out of Indiana bringing quiet and calm conditions. Temperatures Friday should remain in the mid to upper 60s.

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance): Issued at 1254 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Broad area of high pressure over the Great Lakes with an attendant ridge axis extending southward through the eastern Ohio valley will move SE into the eastern seaboard through Saturday. VFR conditions will be prevalent at all terminals owing to dry low level E-NE flow gradually becoming E-SE, with wind speeds less than 10 kts.

A weak area of showers over central IL will develop slowly eastward this afternoon and may survive and reach KLAF before dissipating overnight. For now the potential appears to be low enough to not warrant inclusion in the TAF.

Meanwhile, copious mid-high level clouds associated with an approaching weak storm system moving up from the southern Plains will overspread the region tonight through Saturday with OVC conditions expected at all terminals by 12Z Saturday. Forecast soundings show cloud ceilings will lower to as low as 080 briefly in the morning but will average between 100-150 through remainder of the day. A few virga showers are possible Saturday, but given the degree of dry air in the sub-cloud layer, no precip is expected at the terminals.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.