Carmel, IN 46033 Weather

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

Day one

Through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Key messages

- Dry and unseasonably high temperatures to continue through Friday, afternoon highs in the 70s

- Patchy fog may occur in low lying areas tonight into tomorrow morning.

Forecast update

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface analysis depicts surface high pressure centered near the Northeast while ridging extends back into Indiana. Large scale subsidence from the surface high will continue to promote quiet weather conditions through the overnight. Satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming across Indiana. These clouds are associated with an upper trough pushing through tonight. No precipitation is expected as subsidence induced dry air remains in the low-mid levels. Forecast soundings support this showing very dry air in the low-mid levels. There is a low chance for patchy ground fog to develop in climatologically favored locations towards daybreak due to light winds and clearing skies late.

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday): Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The Ohio Valley still remains beneath the influence of a strong area of high pressure over the SE CONUS. That said, troughing and continued CVA over the Upper Mississippi Vally this week will work to break down the ridge resulting in a slowly progressing long wave pattern throughout the long term. In the meantime, broad subsidence and surface high pressure to the east will keep conditions quiet through the work week.

Winds will remain weak today, but starting tomorrow, slight increases in the pressure gradient due to pressure depletion over the Plains and Upper Midwest will allow for a more consistent light breeze out of the S/SW. This should start to mitigate the diurnal fog development we've been experiencing over the last few nights. On Thursday, there should be enough mid to low level flow and an increase in PBL mixing for occasional gusts of 13-17kt during the afternoon. This consistent SW flow will also provide a slight warming trend with afternoon highs approaching 80 by Thursday.

Ensemble guidance is starting to pick up on the development of a modest 850-700mb low late Friday through Sunday passing through the Ohio Valley late Saturday into Sunday. While uncertainty on magnitude and placement is still high, there is enough mid level moisture return to warrant increase PoPs for Saturday night. Cannot rule out rain for Saturday evening, but there should be enough antecedent dry air to evaporate initial rainfall attempts holding off measurable rain until well into Saturday night.

As the ridge breaks down late this week through the weekend, a more progressive longwave pattern is expected to develop. This will likely place deeper troughing over the central CONUS by early next week with increased chances for precipitation and larger temperature fluctuations likely for central Indiana to begin November.

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance): Issued at 1243 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR conditions are expected this TAF period.

Discussion:

GOES19 shows a wave of upper clouds associated with an upper trough pushing across the TAF sites. These clouds should exit to the east overnight, allowing for a return to unlimited cigs and continued VFR conditions. Fog will not be expected overnight as dew point depressions remain higher than previous days and clouds prevent max cooling.

Ridging aloft on Wednesday along with surface high pressure settled east of Indiana will result in more dry weather for Indiana. Forecast soundings through the day suggest a dry column and little to no cloud cover is seen upstream in the wake of the departing mid and high clouds. Thus VFR.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.