Castalia, OH 44824 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Precipitation chances have increased to around 30-60% for much of the area for a brief period of rain showers Thursday evening into Thursday night. Precipitation chances on Sunday have trended more towards Sunday night. The forecast for Monday has trended drier.

Key messages

1) Above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from scattered rain showers Thursday night, will continue through Sunday.

2) Rain chances return Sunday night through midweek.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure remains over the east coast through Thursday. Southerly flow on the backside of the departing high will bring well above normal temperatures (highs in the 70s, lows in 40s/50s), potentially challenging record high temperatures on Thursday (see climate section below).

A low pressure system located well to the north near the Georgian Bay will bring a cold front across the area Thursday night. While moisture and lift is still lacking overall, rain chances have increased to 30-60%. Some hi-res model guidance indicates a decent chance at a brief, moderate rainfall with some of the more intense rain showers, mainly across Northwest Ohio and near Lake Erie farther east where there could be slightly greater low-level moisture/convergence.

High pressure builds back in Friday through Sunday, ushering "cooler" but still above normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s/50s. Some of the typically cooler spots of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania could get down into the mid 30s Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2: As high pressure departs to the east, broad isentropic lift brings rain chances back Sunday night into early Monday. Latest model guidance has trended toward lower PoPs and a drier day Monday and even into Monday night as precip is mainly tied to a warm front that lifts northeastward across the area Sunday night. Any rain that does occur will be light and likely less than 0.1".

A low pressure system and upper-level low approach the area from the west, with rain chances on the rise midweek. This system has a better chance to bring appreciable rainfall.

Temperatures will likely remain above normal into next week with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s/50s.

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/: VFR observed across the board and will continue through Thursday afternoon. Should be enough wind to prevent fog development later tonight/early Thursday morning. A cold front approaches from the northwest late Thursday and crosses the first half of Thursday night. Am expecting a decent scattering of showers for a 2-3 hour window at most TAF sites with the frontal passage. Some showers may produce passing non-VFR vsby, with a 20-30% risk for thunder at TOL decreasing to 10-20% at FDY, CLE, and ERI (and <10% at CAK/YNG). Showers will impact TOL, FDY, and CLE before the end of the TAF period and have included prevailing VCSH with a TEMPO for showers with MVFR vsby. Considered a TS mention at TOL, but probabilities are just a bit too low for it. Showers will need to be added to the remainder of the TAF sites starting at or just after 0z in future cycles.

Winds will shift southerly across the board tonight at under 10 knots. Winds shift southwesterly on Thursday and increase to 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt during the afternoon.

Outlook: Mainly VFR. Low confidence in non-VFR with rain Sunday night or Monday.

Marine

Light and variable winds become 10 to 15 knots out of the southwest tonight into Thursday before shifting northwesterly to northerly behind a cold front Thursday night. Choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet in the central basin remain possible behind the frontal passage. High pressure returns Friday and Saturday allowing for northerly to northeasterly winds to remain 10 knots or less. South winds less than 10 knots develop Sunday into Monday.

Climate

We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth on Thursday. Here are the record high temperatures for our six climate sites on October 29th:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

Watches, warnings and advisories

OH: None. PA: None. MARINE: None.