Rock Creek, OH 44084 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

: 18z TAF Aviation Forecast Update:

What has changed

There were no changes needed with this forecast update.

Key messages

1) High pressure will allow for quiet and near-normal temperatures into this weekend.

2) Scattered periods of showers are expected next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: A departing cold front early this morning will allow for high pressure to build southeast across the area today. A few light showers are possible across far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania early this morning before dry conditions and near- normal temperatures return today. Highs today will be a bit cooler than recent days with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s with mostly sunny skies. On Saturday, highs will be in the low 60s with increasing cloud cover expected. Overnight lows tonight will be the coldest in northwest Pennsylvania with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s, but elsewhere will remain in the 40s. Lows on Saturday night will be milder, falling into the mid to upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: As the aforementioned high pressure drifts towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Sunday, a weak warm front will lift north across the area bringing the potential for isolated, light rain showers. The associated low pressure and upper level trough are expected to slowly build east into the region through midweek, increasing the potential for showers mid to late week. Overall confidence in the best timing for showers is low given model divergence in the progression of the system as the dominant ridging pattern recently observed slowly becomes progressive. Temperatures through the period will continue to remain above normal with high peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday when temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s.

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/: For the most part, VFR ceilings will continue through this TAF period. ERI may have some MVFR ceilings this afternoon. Winds will start out from the north 5 to 10 knots becoming easterly tonight into Saturday.

Outlook: Apart from low rain chances Monday into Tuesday, mainly VFR expected through Tuesday.

Marine

This morning, a weak cold front will continue to depart to the east, leaving elevated northwest winds behind the boundary across the central basin of Lake Erie. Onshore winds of 15-20 knots are forecast allowing waves to build to 3-5 feet from Vermilion to Conneaut OH. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for these nearshore waters through 10Z this morning.

Behind this departing boundary, high pressure will begin to build southeast across Lake Erie which will allow winds to weaken to 5-10 knots and slowly a more easterly component into Saturday. On Sunday, a weak warm front will lift north allowing for winds to become south- southwesterly at 5-10 knots which are expected to persist through Monday. As the parent low pressure slowly drifts towards the region, increased gradient on Tuesday will allow for the southerly winds to increase to 10-15 knots before strengthening a bit more on Tuesday night. These elevated winds will likely occur off and on throughout the week as the pattern becomes more progressive. At this point any potential for marine headlines remains low given the marginal conditions expected, but will need to continue to monitor the trend in winds over the coming days.

Watches, warnings and advisories

OH: None. PA: None. MARINE: None.