Deshler, OH 43516 Weather

Key messages

- Light rain showers this morning gradually move out by the mid afternoon.

- Very warm on Tuesday followed by increasing rain chances through Wednesday (60% chance).

Discussion

Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

An area of showers is underway spanning from central IA through extreme western Indiana. Mesoanalysis shows warm air advection aloft along with subtle near-surface convergence, and even modest elevated instability (through central IL, fading well before the IN line). This WAA and surface convergence lift north-northeast through early this afternoon. Despite an 8,000 foot dry layer and a 10-degree dew point depression, light rain is underway at Monticello, IN. Trends lead me to believe these showers will persist through at least the morning hours. The centroid of high pressure is analyzed over the greater Lansing area, suggesting the far northeast reaches of these showers will be limited, battling additional dry air and subsidence. Will carry on with the continued Halloween message of isoalted showers, especially in the morning. It does appear showers will move out in time for trick-or- treat hours. Cloudy and somewhat cool with highs just beyond 60 degrees.

Murky, spotty, and weakly forced shower chances linger through at least Monday as high pressure gradually gives way to ridging ahead of deepening low over the Central US. This results in periods of low- confidence 20-30% POPs. A weak shortwave moving through the OH River Valley presents a 20% chance of showers for far southern reaches of the forecast area Sunday afternoon, with perhaps a better moisture stream arriving overnight.

The primary item of interest in the extended forecast is the mid- latitude cyclone moving through midweek. Very warm on Tuesday (near- record highs) ahead of this low as the jet stream becomes highly amplified over the Midwest. Breezy with southerly wind gusts of 20- 25 mph. The occluding low over far northern lower Michigan looks to delay our best rain chance until late Tuesday night and Wednesday. How cyclogenesis evolves over the mid-Mississippi thereafter dictates how much our rain will see, or whether the cold/occluded frontal passage is our only chance for rain. Behind the low, still mild for early November with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

Aviation

Issued at 612 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Latest TAFs account for an area of warm advection rain that has persisted all morning. Upstream observations strongly support this activity is VFR in nature. The end time offers medium confidence as model guidance is gradually acknowledging these showers. Cannot completely rule out more showers early Sunday morning with a shortwave passing through the Ohio Valley.

Watches, warnings and advisories

IN: None. OH: None. MI: None. MARINE: None.