McCarr, KY 41544 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Key messages

- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist through Saturday.

- A potential for rain will return by Sunday and last into the new work week.

Update

Issued at 1045 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the southeast of the state still in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and keep skies mostly clear. Currently, temperatures range from the mid 50s in the most sheltered valleys to the upper 60s on the ridges. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 40s with a few ridges spots in the lower 40s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

Short term

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2026

A cold front is moving southeast through the Midwest late this afternoon, and was laid out from around STL to DET. Its parent low and associated shortwave trough aloft are moving eastward across Quebec. Another shortwave trough over Manitoba is also moving east southeast. The shortwaves are working to enhance troughing over the northeast CONUS, supporting the continued southward progression of the cold front. The front is forecast to move through KY on Friday and Friday night. However, ridging aloft will be making a comeback locally. This occurs in advance of another shortwave trough advancing northeast out of Mexico into the central CONUS. With the return of ridging aloft, the front will lose momentum as it tries to push to our south, and the new, reinforcing dry air mass will struggle to make it completely into our southern counties. There will be very little moisture available along the front, so it shouldn't have much perceptible effect other than a change in direction of our light winds. The central CONUS wave will at least have some elevated moisture streaming east and northeast in advance, and this should result in increasing mid-high clouds for our local area Friday night.

Long term

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 400 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2026

The extended forecast period opens Saturday morning with an expansive upper-level ridge across the eastern CONUS and a digging trough along the West Coast. At the surface, a weak boundary will be draped near or just south of the area early Saturday morning before quickly lifting back northward across eastern Kentucky as a warm front during the day. Low-level theta-e advection will allow Saturday afternoon temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Despite increasing cloud cover, pleasant conditions will persist for trick-or-treaters Saturday evening, with temperatures gradually cooling through the 60s after sunset and into the upper 50s closer to midnight under light easterly winds. Temperatures look to cool further into the low to mid 50s by Sunday morning.

Moisture will steadily advect into the Ohio Valley heading into Sunday ahead of the developing Plains system, with PWATs climbing toward 1.00 inch, or around the 80th to 85th climatological percentile. While rain chances will gradually increase from southwest to northeast through the day as isentropic ascent deepens aloft, southeasterly downslope flow may dry out low levels across our eastern zones, which could result in a sharp QPF gradient. If this occurs, measurable rainfall would remain light and favored primarily across western portions of the forecast area, with many eastern valleys receiving little to no accumulation. Both the 12Z NAM and GFS feature a sharp cutoff right over the forecast area, while the ECMWF remains even drier. Confidence in rainfall amounts remains low as a result. Furthermore, despite notable model spread regarding daytime temperatures, with an 8 to 10 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles, southeasterly winds favoring downslope warming off the higher terrain support the NBM solution of afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Eastern Kentucky will remain embedded within the warm sector on Monday as broad southwesterly flow continues aloft ahead of the deepening Plains system. With Sunday's lead impulse departing and the primary trough still well to our west, lingering isolated to widely scattered showers should wrap up by Monday afternoon. Modest warm-air advection beneath persistent cloud cover will support Monday afternoon temperatures topping out near 70 degrees, followed by a brief dry lull lasting through most of Tuesday.

Rain chances ramp back up later Tuesday as deep Gulf moisture surges northward into the Ohio Valley ahead of the approaching surface cold front. Continued warm-air advection will support unseasonably warm conditions, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 70s on both Tuesday and Wednesday (10 to 15 degrees above normal). While the core of a potent 50 to 60 kt southerly Low-Level Jet remains displaced to our west initially - likely not crossing eastern Kentucky until Wednesday evening - this strengthening low-level wind field should efficiently transport rich moisture into the region well ahead of the boundary, potentially setting the stage for a widespread soaking rain Wednesday into Thursday.

Aviation

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026

VFR conditions were present per ASOS and AWOS stations across eastern KY at the 06Z TAF issuance time. River valley fog has likely begun to develop or should soon develop and could result in localized IFR or worse conditions for some locations through 13Z or 14Z. However, the TAF sites are still not expected to be affected and VFR should prevail otherwise. A cold front is sagging toward eastern KY, with light and variable or south to southwest winds at 5KT or less to its south. This moisture starved boundary should sag into northern sections of eastern KY toward 12Z, and near the TN border toward the end of the period. There will be period of increased moisture along and behind it near the 850 mb level, so a brief window of few to sct clouds around 5kft agl cannot be completely ruled out. The main effect of the boundary will be to change the direction of light winds to the north and northeast between roughly 12Z and 00Z and then eventually to the east.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.