Oneida, KY 41351 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Key messages

- Mainly dry weather with warm afternoons persists into the weekend.

- A low potential for rain will return on Sunday, with a more significant system bringing a higher potential for widespread rain arriving around the middle of next week.

Short term

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 435 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026

Early this morning, an upper level ridge was centered in the vicinity of the Southern Gulf and extended into FL and portions of the Caribbean, with a ridge axis also extending northwest to the Southern Appalachians to Lower OH Valley to sections of the mid MS Valley. Further west, a shortwave trough extended from the Central Plains to Arklatex vicinity downstream of an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast and an associated trough that is gradually approaching the west coast of the Conus. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure centered in the Great Lakes extended into the OH Valley and Appalachians and much of the eastern Conus. Meanwhile, the boundary that crossed eastern KY on Friday continues to settle to to the south and southwest of eastern KY. Temperatures have varied widely overnight pending the degree of cloud cover and decoupling and also driven by where the drier air had moved in behind the front. The pressure gradient across the area is sufficient for some light northeast to east winds at present for some locations. Several of the more sheltered northeastern and eastern valley locations decoupled and are currently as cool as around 40 degrees, with many of the remaining valley locations in the north and east in the 40s to around 50. Ridgetop and more open terrain locations ranged through the 50s. Little or no valley fog was evident on satellite and webcams thus far.

Today and tonight, the upper level ridge should remain in place from southern sections of the Gulf to portions of the Caribbean and the Atlantic, while the ridge axis extending to the northwest will gradually shift to the east of eastern KY by this evening. This will give way to west southwest to southwest flow aloft as the shortwave trough/area of troughing at 500 mb gradually approaches from the southwest. The axis of this trough should reach portions of the mid to upper MS Valley to the Southeast Conus to northeastern Gulf by Sunday morning. High and eventually mid level moisture will increase generally from the top down today and tonight. Mean PW per the 00Z REFS climbs to roughly the 0.6 to 0.85 inch range by this evening or roughly the 60th to 75th percentile for the end of October, increasing slightly tonight but not significantly, as low levels remain dry under downslope flow. On Sunday, the axis of the shortwave trough gradually nears from the west and southwest, with mainly a mid and upper level moisture increase. Mean PW does climb to the 70th to 80th percentile range per 00Z REFS by late Sunday afternoon, but again lower levels continue to remain dry under downslope flow.

Any valley fog that manages to develop through dawn should lift and dissipate within a couple hours of sunrise today. Otherwise, for sensible weather, high clouds will gradually thicken and lower from today into tonight and remain rather persistent through Sunday. Some rain and sprinkles should attempt to reach the ground from a mid level deck on Sunday as the atmosphere moistens from the top down. The best chance for any measurable rain during the day on Sunday in the west.

Long term

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 457 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026

At the start of the long term period, a well defined shortwave will be located just west of the forecast area. Otherwise, midlevel ridging will dominate much of the eastern CONUS; meanwhile, farther west, a substantial trough will be located over the Intermountain West. At the surface, high pressure will sit over the Northeast, with a cold air damming pattern on the other side of the Appalachians. For our area, this pattern will favor southeasterly downslope winds, which should work to suppress dewpoints somewhat, even as total column moisture increases (with PW values surpassing 1 inch in most locations, anomalously moist compared to climatology). Despite the size of this shortwave, height falls won't be particularly intense, and this, in combination with meager low level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 30s and low 40s), should work against any widespread rain, particularly east of I-75. The best chance for appreciable rain will be in our southwestern counties, where low level moisture should be more robust, with rain chances and QPF generally decreasing closer to Virginia and West Virginia. Even in our southwestern counties, however, a lack of instability should keep rain totals unimpressive.

Following the passage of this rather unimpressive shortwave, a more substantial system will arrive next week, bringing more widespread rain chances. Aloft, ridging will attempt to quickly build back in by late Monday, though a second and more subtle shortwave will cross through the area later in the day, with associated cloud cover keeping lows fairly warm in the upper 40s and low 50s. Should this wave be weaker than currently modeled, it is possible some clearing allows valleys to cool slightly more than is currently forecast; however, given ensemble preference towards a mostly cloudy sky, terrain distinctions have been neglected for now. Tuesday will also be dry during the day as ridging amplifies aloft over our area, with the aforementioned deep trough to the west now featuring two distinct closed lows aloft: one in the Upper Midwest and another farther south near the Southern Plains, although there is significant model discrepancy regarding the positioning and evolution of this southern feature. At the surface, an area of low pressure associated with this potent system will push northeast, with southeasterly to southerly winds locally ahead of this system, but atmospheric moisture will be very high, with LREF mean PW values in the range of 1.1-1.3 inches, firmly above the 90th percentile according to climatology. This moist environment and strong source of forcing will set the stage for widespread rainfall, with the highest rain chances currently on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. With this system, a tight pressure gradient will be in place, with fairly strong flow just above the surface; despite sizable model uncertainty, LREF mean 925 mb flow is around 25-30 kt for much of the forecast area, indicating increasing confidence in breezy conditions for our highest terrain as this system moves through. Even so, despite such potent kinematics, meager instability should limit any threat of severe weather.

Looking ahead, PoPs look to decrease on Friday, with a trend towards cooler weather. However, immense model spread regarding the evolution of this system adds considerable uncertainty by the end of the period.

Aviation

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026

VFR conditions with gradually increasing and lowering high clouds are expected at the terminals through the TAF period as an upper level disturbance begins to approach. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure builds from the Great Lakes and into the Mid Atlantic states through the period. This will lead to calm winds initially in many valleys and light northeast to east winds elsewhere for the first 6 hours of the period. Winds will then become east to southeast on Saturday, but will remain less than 10KT. Winds should trend to light and variable to end the period following sunset on Saturday. Otherwise, a few river valley locations could experience MVFR or lower reductions in fog through 13Z or 14Z, but the TAF spots will not be impacted.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.