Auxier, KY 41216 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Key messages

- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist through Saturday.

- A potential for rain will return by Sunday, with periodic rain chances through the week.

Update

Issued at 735 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026

A cold front continues to sag south of the OH River and is nearing the Interstate 64 corridor at this time. Light southerly or calm winds were occurring ahead of the front, while light north to northeast winds were reported north of it. Bands of mainly high clouds are passing overhead and some fog is present in portions of the KY, Big Sandy, and Cumberland basins. This fog should lift and dissipate within a couple hours after sunrise. Otherwise, the boundary will continue sagging south and a few clouds in the 5 to 6kft agl range cannot be completely ruled out along and/or just behind it as has occurred recently in WV.

Short term

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 424 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026

Early this morning, a 500 mb trough extended across portions of central and eastern Canada to the Great Lakes, while an upper level ridge centered in southeastern portions of the Gulf extended northwest into the mid MS Valley. Further west, an upper trough was gradually working into the western Conus. A lead shortwave trough extended from NM to sections of northeastern Mexico and was approaching the Southern Plains. Locally over the OH Valley, westerly flow aloft was present resulting in passing high clouds. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Southern Appalachians, while another sfc ridge of high pressure extended from portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan to the upper MS Valley and sections of the western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a sfc low preceding the troughing in Canada was nearing the Maritimes vicinity with an associated frontal zone trailing into the Northeast to the Lower OH Valley to sections of the Central Plains. This boundary was sagging toward eastern KY and was moisture starved this far southwest. There were areas of low to mid level clouds in its vicinity. Ahead of the front across eastern KY, valleys and low lying areas were generally in the low to mid 40s, while ridgetop locations and some other more open terrain locations were in the 50s. Although some valley fog is likely present, so far there has been minimal signals of it on satellite and KY Mesonet webcams.

Today and tonight, the upper trough in Canada will rotate to the north and east, with the sfc low also moving further to the north and east and the trailing frontal zone moving east of the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, upper ridging becomes centered in the eastern Gulf/Caribbean into the Southeast with its axis approaching eastern KY from the west late tonight. With the ridging in place, the southward progress of the boundary should slow over southern/southwestern portions of the area and eventually become rather diffuse by late tonight. Sfc high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and into the mid Atlantic states behind the boundary. At the same time, the axis of 500 mb troughing/lead shortwave is progged to move into portions of the Central Conus and approach the Lower MS Valley. The 500 mb ridge axis moves east of eastern KY on Saturday and the upper flow becomes southwest to west southwest as the first in a series of shortwave troughs approach. Moisture should increase at high and then mid levels ahead of it, but low level moisture will be slower to increase.

What valley fog that develops should lift and dissipate within a couple hours of sunrise this morning at the latest. Otherwise, as the boundary sags south across the area today, the main effect will be to change the direction of light winds to the north and northeast. Dewpoints should also increase some as well, especially near the boundary, with drier air slower to move in, filtering into more northern locations especially near and north of I-64 late. There will be limited moisture near 850 mb with the front and at least some low clouds near 5kft agl are possible as it passes. Otherwise, moisture will increase at high and mid levels from this evening through the day on Saturday. This will result in plenty of high clouds with a few mid clouds also possible later on Saturday. With the anticipated cloud cover and the boundary in the vicinity tonight, the difference in lows between valley/low lying areas and ridges should be much more minimal compared to what is occurring this morning and recent days. Also, given the degree of cloud cover, only may minor downward adjustments to dewpoints for Saturday afternoon compared to NBM deterministic.

Long term

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 511 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026

At the start of the long term period, eastern Kentucky will find itself under southwesterly flow aloft, with an embedded shortwave moving over the area on Saturday evening. Upstream, a second more defined shortwave will be embedded within this flow, initially located over the Plains. Meanwhile, deep troughing will be centered over the Pacific Coast, a pattern which will have implications for Kentucky's weather later in the forecast period. At the surface, an area of high pressure will be located over the Northeast, with southerly to southeasterly winds in eastern Kentucky. Don't get spooked by the initial shortwave; downslope flow will suppress dewpoints, and Halloween evening is expected to be dry. Even so, increasingly southwesterly flow aloft will advect moisture elsewhere in the column, an indication that our rainless period will soon be coming to a close.

A more active pattern will return by the end of the weekend. Rain chances will begin to tick up as early as Sunday morning for our western counties as another shortwave approaches, interacting with a moist atmospheric column. LREF mean PW values will approach 1 inch across the forecast area by Sunday afternoon, representing anomalously high moisture for this time of year (roughly in the 80th percentile or greater compared to climatology). The strength and exact timing of this wave are still in question, with the GFS favoring a stronger shortwave with more widespread rain, while the ECMWF favors a weaker and drier shortwave passage. Introducing additional uncertainty, southerly to southeasterly downslope winds will keep the low levels quite dry in most locations, which could work to suppress rain in the eastern portion of the forecast area. Additionally, in the absence of instability, any rain should be stratiform in nature, limiting overall QPF. Given these factors, ensemble guidance is not particularly enthusiastic about this event; the chance of measurable precipitation through Monday morning ranges from around 70% in our southwestern counties to under 40% closer to the WV border, with the chance of a quarter inch of rain only around 30% at the absolute highest (closer to Lake Cumberland). So, although a chance of rain will return to the forecast, impacts are expected to be low, especially east of I-75. This should keep high temperatures closer to average, in the mid to upper 60s, with mild lows largely in the 50s.

A more impactful system looks to approach the area next week, bringing our next chance for rain. A brief lull in PoPs is expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon as ridging attempts to build back in; however, to the west, the aforementioned deep trough will continue its eastward progression, with the original surface high now well east of the forecast area. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen in the southern Plains by Tuesday, lifting northeast with time as the trough continues to progress. Moisture will be plentiful, with a strong ensemble signal for anomalously high precipitable water; even this far out, LREF mean PW values peak in the 1.1-1.2 inch range, representing the 90th percentile compared to climatology. A shift to more southwesterly winds as the low approaches will also increase dewpoints, mitigating any downslope concerns. Rain chances begin to increase by Wednesday morning, with widespread and persistent rain expected as this system moves through the forecast area, although timing uncertainties mean that PoPs do not exceed 50 percent at any point in this period for now. Even so, confidence is high that the forecast area will receive rain at some point near the end of the period, with the 00Z LREF suggesting at least a 90% chance of measurable rain across the entire forecast area during the Wednesday and Thursday period. Of note, some deterministic guidance does show potent low level flow with this system, associated with a tight pressure gradient over the forecast area. This could lead to higher wind gusts than in previous days, although further details remain uncertain at this stage in the forecast.

Aviation

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026

VFR conditions with gradually increasing high clouds is expected at the terminals through the TAF period.

A dry cold front will continue moving south through eastern Kentucky over the next 6 to 9 hours, reaching the TN border by 03z this evening. The main impact of the boundary will be to change the direction of light winds to the north and northeast by 00Z and then eventually to the east and southeast through the remainder of the TAF period. A few valley locations in the south could experience MVFR or lower reductions tonight, but the TAF sites are not expected to be impacted.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.