Lebanon, KY 40033 Weather

Key messages

* Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures will continue Friday. Clouds increase becoming overcast on Halloween.

* Chances for rain have increased somewhat (near 60-70%), although rainfall totals remain highly uncertain. High end totals of just under and inch in the southwest to very little in the Bluegrass is possible.

* A more unsettled weather pattern is expected next week, with our next widespread rain chance occurring on Wednesday.

Discussion

Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

===== Clouds Increase with Increasing Rain Chances Sunday =====

Temperatures are on track to reach the mid to upper 70s and isolated 80 degrees in our southern communities. Skies are clear now with winds gusting to 20 MPH at times. After sunset, winds will become near calm with high level clouds streaming in overhead. Lows will reach the upper 40s to low 50s by sunrise as clouds continue to build from moisture streaming in from Texas, and from a slowly descending cold front in our north. As this front moves into our southern Indiana counties in the early morning, dew points will drop and slightly cooler air will move in. This front will be aided by a weak high near 700 mb with northerly flow to push it near or along the Cumberland Parkway. In the morning, some low to mid level clouds will move in across our northern counties and will slowly raise higher as they progress to the south by early afternoon. Highs are coolest across our north in the low to mid 70s and in the upper 70s to near 80 near the TN border.

Despite this southward push of cooler air, it will be relatively short lived as SW flow returns later in the day with continuous moisture advection trying to erode away the dry air in place at the surface. Lows on Saturday morning will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s again as overcast skies take hold. What will be going on then is the slow retreat of a high to our east while the remnants of what's left of TC Vance and a weak wave along the Gulf begin to move northwards towards KY late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Saturday will remain dry however, as highs remain mild in the mid 70s in the south and upper 60s across our north. A warm air mass will move in late Saturday into Sunday and act as a precursor to the moist advection from the remnants of Vance.

Sunday morning, continuous moisture advection from the SW with the approaching wave will increase PWATs somewhere in the 1.1-1.4" range. Seems now that total rainfall has increased a little, considering the recent Euro/CMC guidance. GFS guidance has the most robust signal. Considering moisture advection has to overcome PWATs near 0.5" along with dry air at the surface, it may take awhile for incoming rain to reach the ground, meaning the atmosphere will moisten from the top-down.

The approaching wave will act as an inverted trough on the west side of the retreating high and will bring showers, potentially with moderate rainfall rates, especially in our SW communities. Since the moisture from the Gulf and the remnant energy from Vance has a long way to travel and must erode counteractive preexisting conditions away, rainfall totals entail a lot of uncertainty. 25-75th percentile range anywhere from a trace to just under an inch. So the high end of rainfall totals have increased, but the lower end hasn't changed since the last update. For now, expect spotty to scattered showers Sunday morning through the evening hours, with residual drizzle or sprinkles leftover that may last into Monday. Highs range in the mid 60s to near 70, with the Bluegrass region remaining the warmest coinciding with the lowest rainfall potential.

===== Anticipating Busy Pattern Next Week =====

Residual moisture with southerly flow remaining Monday will keep cloud cover around and the occasional shower or sprinkle in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s as well, with little change in the weather during the day. As the week progresses, a deep trough will be moving east through the Rockies and slowly approach the Ohio Valley. Within this trough, the Pacific subtropical jet will be feeding moisture to the expectant developing low within the trough as it moves east of the Rockies. This low will be cut off from the polar jet and without strong steering flow, will progress eastwards slowly and potentially meander through the Plains. Right now, the best timing for our next rainfall seems to be on Wednesday, possibly as late as the overnight hours into Thursday. This incoming low has a greater potential to dump more rain on us with increasing PWATs and greater moisture feed from the Pacific/Gulf, although probabilities of our CWA receiving more than an inch of rain Wednesday only reaches a maximum of 25% in our southwest. For now, just know that PoPs increase again by middle of the week.

Aviation

Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected the entire TAF period. Winds have increased out of the SW this afternoon that may gust 15-18 kts at times, more so in LEX. Winds will lessen as the sun sets becoming light or calm overnight. Clear skies now become FEW-SCT through the overnight as well, and eventually OVC over the north, dropping to at least mid levels in HNB. A front of cooler air will shift winds for all terminals becoming a light wind from the ENE Friday afternoon. VFR conditions continue tomorrow.

Watches, warnings and advisories

KY: None. IN: None.