Monticello, MS 39654 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Elevated fire danger concerns will persist today due to very dry ground conditions and low humidity.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the forecast area this weekend.

- There is an additional chance for thunderstorms during the middle of next week.

Discussion

Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Temperatures will continue to trend above average in the coming days, but today will be the last day of significantly low daytime RHs for the upcoming forecast period. As has been the case in recent days, the combination of dry air and dry ground conditions/ drought will continue to elevate fire danger concerns, though a lack of significant wind will prevent the need for red flag products. While RHs will be higher beyond today and rain chances will increase, meaning meteorological conditions will contribute less to fire concerns, antecedent ground conditions will still be problematic in the coming days, particularly in areas that do not receive significant rainfall. Continue to heed the advice of local and state fire officials and any burn bans.

Otherwise, an upper shortwave will shift from the Southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley over the weekend. Increasing mid level moisture will result in increasing clouds by Friday, with virga likely beginning to overspread the area by Friday afternoon as this moisture encounters drier low levels. By early Saturday morning, showers will be possible mainly around the ArkLaMiss/ Delta area. Across the remainder of the area, scattered showers may mostly hold off until more into Saturday afternoon/evening, continuing into Sunday. Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday into Sunday, but no severe weather is expected. Given the scattered nature of precip, many outdoor plans may still proceed without disruption this weekend, but it would be a good idea to keep close watch on conditions and/or have a backup plan in case rain does occur at your location.

A break in rain chances is still expected Monday as shortwave ridging shifts across the area, then a deepening upper trough looks to bring a more organized storm system to the area for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. With this system, it appears more probable showers and thunderstorms would be organized along a cold front pushing eastward across the area. While instability with this system is uncertain, stronger deep layer shear appears likely, which could result in some strong storms. With this system still several days away, it is too early to have much confidence in timing/threat details. /DL/

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

Preliminary point temps/pops

Jackson 83 54 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 81 50 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 84 53 83 60 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 83 54 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 84 56 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 83 54 82 61 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 84 51 83 59 / 0 0 0 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

MS: None. LA: None. AR: None.