Conehatta, MS 39057 Weather

: New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION:

Key messages

- Elevated fire danger concerns will persist through Thursday due to very dry ground conditions and low humidity each day.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across the forecast area this weekend. While heavy rainfall is possible, it is not a certainty for all areas.

- There is an additional chance for thunderstorms during the middle of next week.

Mesoscale update

Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Rest of tonight:

Quiet and dry with another pleasant/chilly night. Water vapor/RAP analysis indicate ridge centered over the northeast Gulf, with surface high pressure centered over the Atlantic seaboard down into the Southeast states. Broad subsidence and dry easterly flow (i.e. GOES East total precipitable water and regional soundings remain around 0.5-0.8 inches) remain in the area. Seasonable lows will be the norm along and east of Interstate 55 (43F to 48F) while seasonably warm lows in the Delta region (49F to 54F). Other than a few high clouds at times, clear skies will support efficient radiational cooling. Lows were a little warmer last night, so leaning towards inherited blended guidance. Updates will be out shortly. /DC/

Discussion

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Dry and warm conditions to continue across the forecast area through the day Friday, with low humidity today and tomorrow causing elevated fire danger. Humidity and the chances for showers with a weak upper-level shortwave or two increase into Saturday and continue into Sunday. The biggest messaging change with latest guidance, is the lower of thunder chances as wave looks weaker and less organized than in previous runs of model guidance as the broader synoptic scale features to our west are sampled. The global models are still struggling to resolve the timing of the shortwave and whether it is consolidated or split. The trends however are for lowering thunderstorm chances, though slight chance retained along/south of I-20 with this forecast issuance. POPs in general are greatest (50-70% chances) after sunset on Saturday - the more favorable time window for any moderate to heavier showers as well. With Halloween activities, just keep an eye on the forecast and consider rain will be possible.

A return of shortwave ridging for Monday pauses rain chances. The pattern remains difficult to draw many explicit solutions from going into the rest of the week. Split flow with active southern and northern jet stream energy to our west (originating over the Pacific and crossing the Rocky Mountains) means that timing and phasing of waves will have a lot of impact on the downstream evolution of low pressure systems in the central CONUS. The big picture is for a progressive pattern with a deep trough crossing the Rockies Monday into Tuesday, however individual model solutions handle the development of this feature differently between the northern and southern streams. Generally expect warm, moist return flow from the south in advance of the system. Some instability is likely to be available for storm development in advance of the wave, but hesitate to offer any specific scenario beyond "rain chances increase areawide Tuesday into Wednesday". /NF/

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR flight categories and light easterly winds will persist the next 24 hours through the 00Z TAF period. /DC/

Preliminary point temps/pops

Jackson 50 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 44 80 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 51 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 45 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 53 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 52 83 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 49 84 52 82 / 0 0 0 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

MS: None. LA: None. AR: None.