Oakland, FL 34760 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions continue along the east central Florida coast and across the local Atlantic waters through late week. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding, minor to moderate beach erosion, and a HIGH risk of rip currents are forecast over the next several days.

- Bands of heavy showers have developed over portions of East Central Florida today. Training bands could lead to flooding, especially locations that are already impacted by coastal flooding.

Discussion

Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight: Florida remains situation between two lobes of surface high pressure lingering over the eastern US and a low pressure system over to just southwest of the Bahamas this afternoon. The low has started to elongate as the mid-upper level feature begins to lift away from the surface project, allowing the pressure gradient across our area to loosen a bit and onshore flow to relent slightly. Outside of convection and squalls, wind gusts have generally peaked around 30 mph this afternoon. However, winds remains fresh enough that combined with high astronomical tides, East Central Florida continues to be subjected to numerous, dangerous beach and marine hazards, including large rough surf, life-threatening rip currents, and during the high tides, coastal flooding and beach erosion. Surging moisture in this flow is also producing bands of of scattered to numerous showers. Training bands of heavy showers could produce a quick 2-3" of rainfall leading to minor flooding, and there is a very low chance of locally high amounts of +4" producing more impactful flooding. Locations already affected by coastal flooding will be especially sensitive. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding along the Space and Treasure Coasts. Bands early this morning already produced 2-4" of rainfall across a stretch of Martin County. Gusts to 45 mph in these bands/marine squalls are possible, and can't completely rule out a few lightning strikes. Highs are forecast to reach the 80s, but wouldn't be surprised if portions of the area fell short due to cloud cover and rain, especially the southern counties. Lows tonight in the 70s. Still gusty along the coast overnight, but gentler winds than previous nights expected for the rest of the area.

Thursday-Friday: The northeastern lobe of high pressure is forecast to move offshore the New England coast, opening the door for the mid-upper level Bahamas low to lift northeast, developing a new surface projection in the process. The orphaned surface low southwest of the Bahamas is forecast to retrograde west across South Florida to the Straits of Florida while weakening into an open trough, as the southern high pressure lobe is reinforced and builds over the eastern US, bringing the southern flank to Florida. The shuffling of these systems will further loosen the pressure gradient across Florida some, allowing onshore flow to slacken a bit more, though still be breezy and gusty especially in the afternoons and along the coast. With the peak of this month's high astronomical tides in the rear view mirror and less windy conditions, coastal flooding concerns will gradually diminish, but minor to locally moderate impacts will continue during the high tides (especially the morning high tide) Thursday and likely Friday. Beach and marine conditions will also begin to improve, but despite the surf looking less threatening, the ocean will remain dangerous to bathers as hard to spot life-threatening rip currents remain present. Life guards have also reported debris in the water. This is the time many surf deaths occur, and beach goers are advised to not enter the ocean even as it appears more inviting.

Drier air filtering in from the north knocks rain chances down to 20-50% Thursday and 20-40% Friday. Can't completely rule out an isolated storm capable of occasional cloud to ground lightning, but chances are very low (20% or less). Any storms that manage to form and heavy showers will continue to be capable of gusty winds to 45 mph. The threat for heavy rainfall leading to flooding also diminishes as onshore moving showers become more isolated to widely scattered, but areas impacted by coastal flooding will remain sensitive to any additional rainfall. Afternoon highs tick up a degree or two as cloud cover and rain chances decrease, though remain forecast in the L-M80s, on the warmer side for late October. Overnight lows also on the warm side in the 70s thanks to the onshore flow.

Saturday-Tuesday (Modified Previous Discussion): Surface high pressure continues to build southward from the Great Lakes this weekend, strengthening and shifting across the eastern US before pushing offshore into early next week. Models continues to indicate development of a mid-level trough over the Deep South and northeast Gulf, that in turn helps develop an attendant surface disturbance. However, there remains a fair amount of disagreement in timing and track of the surface feature by Sunday, especially from the GFS which develops a closed low off the southeast seaboard by Monday, while the ECM and CMC remain open troughs still in the Gulf or over Florida. The official forecast trends towards the latter two, but confidence for next week is lower than normal. PoPs on Sunday increase to 60-70% , then settle back to 20-40% monday and Tuesday. Shifts in rain chances will be possible as timing of this system becomes clearer, so stay tuned to the forecast. Storm chances at this time remain low through this weekend and into next week (20-30%), but again, this may evolve as the pattern becomes clearer and guidance comes into better agreement. Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal values through this weekend and into early next week.

Marine

Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Boating conditions begin to improve late this week, but are forecast to remain poor to hazardous into next week, especially in the Gulf Stream. A low pressure system over the Bahamas is forecast to split, with the stronger closed low lifting away to the northeast, and the weaker open trough sliding west over South Florida to the Straits of Florida. High pressure over the Deep South is reinforced, building the southern flank of the high over Central Florida. Fresh onshore (NE-E) flow 15-25 kts, up to 30 kts offshore Daytona this evening between the high pressure and the low pressure systems to the south and east diminishes Thursday and Friday to 10-20 kts, but then picks up to 15-25 kts again this weekend. Seas 8-13 ft this evening also subside, but are forecast to remain poor to hazards at 5-7 ft this weekend into early next week. Scattered to numerous onshore moving showers are forecast to become more isolated to widely scattered Thursday through Saturday, then become scattered to numerous again early next week. Isolated lightning storms can't be ruled out. Any storms that manage to form and heavy squalls will be capable of frequent wind gusts to around 35 kts.

Aviation

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 737 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Breezy/gusty NE winds will continue tonight along the coast but decrease over interior sites near 10 knots and become more northerly. SCT SHRA will continue to push onshore and have inserted TEMPOs from MLB-SUA. CIGs are generally VFR (035-050AGL) except MVFR in SHRA. Prevailing MVFR CIGs may develop at MCO/SFB later tonight. On Thu, breezy/gusty NE to ENE winds redevelop but not as strong as today with scattered SHRA pushing SW across the area so handled that with VCSH.

Preliminary point temps/pops

DAB 73 81 71 81 / 40 50 30 20 MCO 73 84 72 85 / 30 40 20 20 MLB 73 83 73 83 / 60 40 30 30 VRB 73 85 73 85 / 60 30 40 40 LEE 71 84 70 84 / 20 40 20 20 SFB 73 84 72 84 / 30 40 20 20 ORL 73 84 72 85 / 30 40 20 20 FPR 72 84 72 84 / 60 20 30 40

Watches, warnings and advisories

FL: Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

AM: Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572-575.