Ocala, FL 34471 Weather

Key messages

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend. Coastal Flood Warning Moderate Flooding along the St. Johns River Basin. Coastal Flood Advisory along the Atlantic Coast for Minor Flooding Around Times of High Tide. High Surf Advisory through Late Thursday Night at Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk for Rip Currents at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend. Small Craft Advisories for the Atlantic Waters through Friday and Saturday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night

Near term

Main Highlights:

- Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns River basin, Atlantic Coast, and ICW

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

Showers will continue to move onshore across northeast Florida, primarily over Flagler and St. Johns counties (with a low chance of thunder) as northeasterly winds persist. High temperatures today will be at or just below normal, with cloudy skies. Minor to moderate tidal flooding will continue around times of high tide along the St. Johns river basin, Atlantic coast, and ICW, along with beach erosion and dangerous surf.

Cloudy skies continue overnight for northeast Florida, along with isolated showers near the coast south of St. Augustine. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to low 70s, milder near the coast and St. Johns river basin area.

Short term

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal Hazards Continue, Especially for the St. Johns River

- Thunderstorm Potential for Northeast FL Saturday Night

High pressure north of the region will begin a northeast-eastward shift during the forecast period. This will prompt a cold front to begin a southward shift along the eastern seaboard, towards SE GA by Saturday morning, and begin to clear south of the the area by Saturday evening.

The overall flow continues from the northeast Friday, with breezy to gusty conditions along the coast and local waters. Showers will again be possible along coastal NE FL and portions of north central FL. Daytime highs will primarily be in the lower 80s, with cooler temperatures along the coast with temperatures topping out in the mid 70s to lower 80s. The advancing frontal boundary will lead to the persistent NE onshore flow begin to veer Saturday and becoming more easterly by the Saturday evening. Coastal showers are once again expected on Saturday, but due to the shift in onshore flow, activity will likely be directed a bit north with isolated to scattered showers along JAX beaches and towards Camden County in SE GA. By Saturday night, the front is currently expected to push south of north central FL. Temperatures will have a similar spread as Friday, with daytime highs in the lower 80s for inland locations, while coastal locations will sit in the mid to upper 70s, sparse lower 80s.

From Previous Discussion: Most coastal hazards are expected to continue Friday and into the weekend, especially within the St. Johns River as higher water levels will remain the most trapped. We will continue to evaluate levels over the coming days, but at least Coastal Flood Advisories are likely to continue area-wide, with Coastal Flood Warnings possible to continue for at least upstream portions of the St. Johns River.

Long term

Main Highlights This Period: Sunday through Wednesday

- Coastal Hazards Likely to Continue through at Least the Weekend

- Thunderstorm Potential Sunday

Easterly-northeastery onshore flow will persists on Sunday behind the front's passage during the early hours on Sunday. There will an increase in the areal coverage as most locations will have isolated to scattered chances of showers on Sunday, with higher chances along north central FL locations with the proximity of the stalling frontal boundary over central/south FL. Additionally, there could be some thunderstorm development by the afternoon hours on Sunday primarily over NE FL. Chances continue into the overnight hours into Monday, but areal coverage will not be as widespread due to the onshore flow shifting to a more northeasterly flow, persisting into midweek as high pressure stretches along the eastern seaboard once again.

Aviation

MVFR and IFR ceilings overnight and into the early morning hours on Friday with ceilings becoming VFR nearer to the end of the forecast period. Winds will become more diminished during the overnight hours and build from out of the northeast for sites by around 14z to 16z.

Marine

Strong high pressure stretching from coastal New England southwestward through the southern Appalachians will shift southward while gradually weakening through tonight. Meanwhile, a trough will remain situated across the Bahamas and southeast Florida through tonight. High pressure will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard, creating gusty north-northeasterly winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions through Friday. Otherwise, coastal troughing will remain situated over our near shore waters through early next week, with this feature generating scattered to numerous showers through Friday.

Another strong high pressure center building southeastward from the Upper Midwest on Friday will reach the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday, with this feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. Although a brief lull in winds and seas is possible late Friday and early Saturday, easterly winds may strengthen to Small Craft Advisory levels this weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula this weekend may generate numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories remain in effect for the northeast FL beaches through Thursday night, where breakers of 6 to 8 feet will prevail. Breakers of 3 to 6 feet will prevail at the southeast GA beaches through Friday. These elevated, rough surf conditions will maintain a high risk of deadly rip currents at all area beaches through the upcoming weekend, and additional beach erosion is likely to occur around times of high tide.

Fire weather

- AREAS OF ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND

Onshore flow will persist from the northeast on Friday and into the weekend. Showers will continue to occasionally move onshore through Friday accordingly, mainly across northeast FL. Poor to fair daytime dispersions continue near the coast through Saturday, while in the fair to good range inland with better mixing. Areas of high nighttime dispersion will also continue near the coast through the weekend. The pattern changes this weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest, which will return chances for higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. This will also bring a slightly stronger surge of onshore flow ahead of the front, and therefore more widespread good dispersions accordingly.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected during the next several days.

Tides/coastal flooding

Breezy northeasterly winds will combine with lingering high astronomical tide values to maintain moderate tidal flooding through at least Friday for the St. Johns River basin. Water levels will generally reach 2-2.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for the Atlantic coast through Friday afternoon, where mostly minor flooding is expected around times of high tide, as water levels generally reach 1.5-2 feet above MHHW. Moderate tidal flooding may linger into the upcoming weekend within the St. Johns River basin. The long duration of this strong onshore wind event will produce additional beach erosion during each high tide cycle through at least Friday afternoon.

Preliminary point temps/pops

AMG 59 82 62 80 / 0 0 10 20 SSI 65 75 66 77 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 66 78 67 79 / 0 0 20 30 SGJ 70 77 70 79 / 30 40 30 30 GNV 67 82 68 82 / 0 10 10 10 OCF 68 83 69 84 / 0 10 0 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

FL: Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-125- 132-137-225-325-633. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for FLZ124-138- 233-333. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA: Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ470-472- 474.