Cortez, FL 34209 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue, although winds not quite as strong.

- Slight decrease in winds with a few showers possible, mainly inland and over southwest Florida.

Discussion

Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Very little change to overall forecast dynamics/reasoning. U/L split flow pattern continues along the west coast of the U.S. with a mean overall U/L trough across the western U.S., and weak downstream ridging over the Gulf and Florida. The persistent U/L low which remains just northeast of the Bahamas will lift slowly north today and will be absorbed into the main U/L flow over the western Atlantic today and Friday. A strong northern stream disturbance will dig over the Pacific northwest over the next several days causing the west coast trough to amplify: which will strengthen the downstream ridge over the Gulf and Florida in the wake of the exiting U/L low. The building heights over the forecast area combined with the increasing large scale subsidence will allow temperatures across west central and southwest Florida to climb several degrees above climatic normals today through Saturday.

A southern stream disturbance will exit the base of the west coast trough late in the week and will push across the Mississippi River valley Saturday/Saturday night, moving slowly over the mid Atlantic coast and Florida Sunday and Monday. An associated frontal boundary will push across the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night with showers and a few thunderstorms likely. This will also decrease heights over the state with daytime temperatures dropping back several degrees due to the increasing cloudiness/showers, but will still run above climatic normals.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the region today with a rather tight pressure gradient in place: but not as strong as the past several days. Gusty northeast winds will continue across west central and southwest Florida along with the adjacent coastal waters. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly across the interior and southwest Florida, due to the continued convergent northeast flow off the Atlantic which will advect scattered showers onshore the east central/southeast Florida coast which will push inland. Any precipitation will be light.

Over the weekend, the surface high will begin to exit the area as the U/L trough moves over the state and an associated frontal boundary will push across the forecast area with showers likely along with isolated thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will build back over the region early next week in the wake of the cold front with clearing skies. However, no cold air in sight as temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above climatic normals each day. Relatively muggy conditions will persist with dew points generally in the 60s to around 70.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 841 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR and IFR CIGS across the area will start to lift as we go through the next few hours. After that we can expect VFR conditions for the rest of the day. MVFR and IFR CIGS looks to stay in SW Florida tomorrow morning with our northern sites staying VFR.

Marine

Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Advisory level winds will persist across the waters through Thursday morning, with exercise caution the remainder of the day. An evening surge of wind Thursday evening could cause a few hours of advisory level winds, especially over the outer waters. Winds are expected to remain elevated at cautionary levels through Saturday night. A cold front will push across the waters on Sunday with showers likely and isolated thunderstorms. The gradient will weaken behind the cold front with conditions dropping below cautionary levels, which will continue into early next week.

Fire weather

Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.

Preliminary point temps/pops

TPA 86 71 86 73 / 10 0 10 0 FMY 88 73 88 73 / 20 0 20 10 GIF 87 71 87 72 / 20 10 20 0 SRQ 87 71 87 72 / 10 0 20 0 BKV 87 69 87 70 / 10 0 10 0 SPG 85 72 85 73 / 10 0 10 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

FL: None. Gulf waters: None.