Thonotosassa, FL 33592 Weather

: New UPDATE, AVIATION:

Key messages

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue into mid week.

- Breezy areawide with a slight chance of showers.

Update

Issued at 749 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Scattered showers have been streaming from the northeast with most of them dissipating as they approach the coast. This trend should continue overnight and into the early morning hours. Similarly, low clouds are anticipated with the potential of a sprinkle or a quick shower during the this time. Almost a carbon copy of today is expected on Thursday with afternoon temperatures in the 80s though clouds should break up into the afternoon and evening.

No changes were made as the forecast remains on track.

Discussion

Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The upper level low that has been causing our gusty easterly winds will stick around for the rest of our work week. This means we will see very similar conditions each day with gusty winds in the afternoon with some quick passing showers mainly over SW Florida and inland areas.

By Saturday, a cold front will start to approach the area which will push the upper level low away from us. However, winds will remain elevated as these two systems keep the pressure gradient tight. As the front moves in we will also see an increase in moisture and shower chances for the weekend. The front itself will push through on Sunday giving us the best chance of rain we have seen in a week or two with most of the area in the 60 to 70 chance of PoPs.

We will not see much of cool down behind this system as highs remain near 80 degrees in the afternoon but morning lows should dip back down into the mid 60's. Winds will also finally be calming back down to are average 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 749 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR/MVFR conditions anticipated over the next few hours with ceiling dropping into the IFR category overnight and into the early morning hours. Breezy northeasterly winds prevail even though there should be a slight decrease overnight. Periods of MVFR ceilings remain until around midday with VFR conditions expected into the afternoon. There is potential for winds to increase during the late afternoon and into the evening hours.

Preliminary point temps/pops

TPA 71 86 72 86 / 0 20 10 20 FMY 73 88 73 88 / 10 20 10 30 GIF 72 87 72 88 / 20 30 20 20 SRQ 72 87 72 87 / 10 20 0 30 BKV 69 87 69 87 / 10 20 10 20 SPG 72 85 72 85 / 0 10 0 20

Watches, warnings and advisories

FL: None. Gulf waters: Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.