Kendall West, FL 33185 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Updated at 640 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Major coastal flooding is expected during high tide today, with moderate flooding into the end of this week. Inundated roadways are expected for coastal areas.

- Marine and beach conditions will remain hazardous today, but improving conditions are expected for the end of this week.

Short term

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

South Florida will remain on the periphery of a mid-level low centered near the Bahamas that will begin to weaken and advect northeastwards away from the area for the end of this week. A nearby surface low is also analyzed early this morning that can provide some extra forcing for ascent in the low-levels, but any convection today will be capped as lapse rates are weak and mid-level temps are several degrees above normal (500mb temps at -3 to -4 deg C). In addition, an abundance of dry air is present on the latest ACARS soundings and model soundings, which combined with a rebuilding ridge heading into Thursday will further cap convective and lightning potential. With the ridge amplifying and the low offshore beginning to advect northeastward, the channel of strongest winds will shift north of the South Florida forecast area and thus much less windy conditions are expected through the period, but they are likely to still be on the breezier side for today.

Overall, while some shallow isolated to scattered shower activity along with very low-end chances for a thunderstorm or two. Thunderstorms are unlikely with this atmospheric profile, but can never rule out a single more robust updraft occurring that allows for deep enough convection to spark a pulse storm. Regardless, from a general weather perspective both today and tomorrow, concerns are limited with no major hazards expected. High temperatures will rise a few degrees as high pressure builds and more sunshine is possible, so temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s.

Long term

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Gourd-geous weather may not be in the cards for South Florida this Halloween as the forecast has trended wetter over the past 24 hours. There is no trick (or treat) here, as we will delve into all of the forecast specifics later in this discussion. But for now, the main takeaway is that rain chances have taken an upward trajectory for Saturday afternoon and evening, now in the 50-70% range with forecast temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s forecast across the region during the same timeframe. Before we get too far ahead, let's rewind back to the beginning of the extended period and take a closer look at the end of the ongoing work week.

While zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the southeastern United States Thursday night into Friday morning, the axis of a developing mid-level ridge across the southern Gulf will slide eastward during the second half of the week, resulting in increasing geopotential heights, 500mb temperatures above the 75- 90th percentile, and a reduction in 500mb wind speeds out of the northwest. The plume of deeper atmospheric moisture previously in place will gradually wane across the region with precipitable water values still slightly above average compared to climo, but remaining in the 60-70th percentile through Friday afternoon. Surface winds are forecast to remain out of a northeasterly direction across the region as the background flow regime is dominated by an expansive ridge of surface high pressure situated across the southeastern United States. The onshore breeze will result in a temperature gradient from east to west across the region, with forecasted high temperatures in the low to mid 80s along the east coast on Friday and temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 across southwestern Florida.

The axis of mid-level ridging is forecast to slide across South Florida during the day on Saturday, however the enhancement of a pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface ridging across the southeastern United States and western Atlantic waters as well as an area of developing low pressure in the Gulf may result in an enhancement of winds across the northern half of South Florida during this time period. Moisture will pool out ahead of the feature which will act to increase rain chances across the region on Saturday afternoon as previously advertised above. Warm 500mb temperatures and ridging aloft will keep convection fairly benign in nature through the first half of the weekend. Mid-level ridging across our region is then forecast to erode Saturday night into Sunday morning as a lobe of mid-level vorticity slides eastward across the southeastern United States in tandem with a developing surface low and frontal boundary in the Gulf. Ample warm air and moisture advection is forecast to occur across the Florida Peninsula with the best atmospheric dynamics and ascent residing over the northern half of the Florida Peninsula. Ensemble and deterministic guidance has been both 1) more progressive with the mid-level vorticity over the past 24 hours and 2) more amplified with the mid- level forcing in closer proximity to South Florida. A cooling of 500mb temperatures to below average values (25th to 50th percentile), 500-700mb lapse rates steeping to 6.0 to 6.5 C/km, and a southerly component to surface winds could focus a higher chance of convection (including thunderstorms) across inland South Florida, Lake Okeechobee locales, and Palm Beach & Broward counties on Sunday afternoon and evening as activity is forecast to favor these regions. While we remain outside of the time horizon of reliable mesoscale models, the proximity of dynamics to the region, moisture advection, and instability could support the threat of an isolated strong to marginally severe storm, especially along any mesoscale boundary interactions. Stay tuned as more reliable model guidance comes in and we get a more complete picture on atmospheric dynamics.

Beyond that, the amplified southern stream across the southeastern United States may briefly advect drier air on the westward side of the departing surface low that is forecast to transit just offshore of the southeastern United States early next week. This may result in lower rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday as a lobe of mid- level ridging briefly established across the region before more mid- level vorticity knocks on our doorstep. All in all, it does not appear that South Florida will branch out into fall anytime soon as no strong cold fronts are on the immediate horizon.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions for all east coast terminals through this evening and for the entire Thursday timeframe. Sub-MVFR CIGS at KAPF this evening beginning at around 06Z through about 14Z Thursday morning. Keeping VCSH for all east coast terminals through the late evening and will allow it to drop off overnight. Reintroducing it for same terminals starting late tomorrow morning. Light NE flow this evening will become L/V overnight, increasing to 5-10 kts shortly after daybreak for all of So. FL.

Marine

Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Conditions are gradually improving this afternoon and evening, but lingering Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected into early Thursday morning before tapering off across the Gulf and Atlantic waters. Northeast winds at 20-25 kts in the Gulf and seas of 7-10 feet are expected in the Gulf and Atlantic respectively into tonight before falling off. Winds fall to moderate levels tomorrow while veering more easterly. An enhancement of winds across the local waters could once again occur during the upcoming weekend as a storm system moves just to the north of our region. Higher rain chances during this time period could result in locally higher seas and winds.

Beaches

Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A high risk of rip currents will persist for all Atlantic beaches this afternoon before tapering off for the Broward and Miami- Dade beaches this evening. However, a high risk for rip currents will continue through at least Thursday for the Palm Beaches. Surfing conditions will also be improving today for the Palm Beaches, but waves of 7-8 feet will still be possible through today which will keep the High Surf Advisory in effect until tonight.

Onshore wind flow and high seas combined with King Tides will result in another cycle of increased coastal flooding risk along the Atlantic coast this evening. While peak tidal projections are now on a gradual downward trajectory, Moderate to near major flooding is still expected during periods of high tide through tomorrow's morning high tide cycle and minor to moderate coastal flooding will likely continue through early November along the east coast of South Florida. A Coastal Flood Statement was also added earlier this morning for southwestern Florida as minor coastal flooding will also be possible through tomorrow evening.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Miami 75 86 75 86 / 10 30 20 30 West Kendall 75 87 75 87 / 10 30 10 30 Opa-Locka 74 87 75 86 / 20 30 20 30 Homestead 75 87 75 87 / 10 20 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 75 84 75 84 / 20 30 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 75 85 75 85 / 20 30 30 40 Pembroke Pines 74 87 74 86 / 20 30 30 30 West Palm Beach 74 85 74 85 / 30 20 30 30 Boca Raton 75 85 75 84 / 30 30 30 40 Naples 72 86 73 87 / 10 20 10 40

Watches, warnings and advisories

FL: Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM: Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM: Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ656-657-676.