Chaires, FL 32317 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Updated at 632 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Fresh northeast breezes over the Gulf waters will continue to support a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions through the weekend.

- Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend, particularly on Sunday.

Short term

(Today through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Ridging remains in place for another day or two before moving to the east this weekend. Warm and dry weather prevails until then with highs in the low to mid 80s, running several degrees above average. Lows likewise will mainly be in the 60s. Changes to the weather arrive this weekend.

Long term

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

This weekend, a shortwave trough will dig into the central and eastern Gulf Coast with a weak low pressure system riding along the Gulf Coast. This system has trended further south and east over the last 24 hours. When looking at this system last night, the heavier rain was situated more over central parts of Alabama, but now it is moreso over the Florida Panhandle and offshore. Still, we're looking at medium chances for rain late Saturday night into Sunday (40-60%). Timing will be tricky (no pun intended) for trick-or-treat activities as the first showers could arrive late Saturday afternoon into the evening in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama.

Another wrench in the forecast will be for Sunday's temperatures as high pressure tries to build southward down the Appalachians and low pressure rides along the central Gulf Coast. Pattern recognition and some of the modeling show the potential for cold air damming across our area, especially with cloud cover and rain around. Thus, have nudged temperatures downward and may need to monitor for further adjustments.

Our weekend system moves out just in time for the start of the workweek. But our attention will turn to the next system by arriving mid-week with another chance for showers and storms beginning Wednesday.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

This morning, a stratus deck is expected to move westward from the Atlantic. As a result, MVFR cigs are forecast for VLD near sunrise with VFR returning again by early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions at the remainder of the sites through the period.

Marine

Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Moderate northeasterly breezes continue today before freshening tonight over the offshore waters. There is a medium to high chance of advisory-level winds tonight well offshore, and the Small Craft Advisory has been extended again for these areas through Friday morning to account for this. This pattern of nocturnal surges in wind will continue through the weekend, especially for waters west of Apalachicola and offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend as an area of low pressure moves eastward along the coast.

Fire weather

Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Dry weather continues through Friday before rain chances increase late Saturday into Sunday. East to northeast transport winds around 10-15 mph will continue for the next few days with good dispersions each afternoon. RH values will remain well above critical levels. Overall, no fire weather concerns are expected.

Hydrology

Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Rainfall totals with this weekend's system will generally be around 0.5 to 1 inch with the higher totals favored near the coast. Some localized areas could see up to 2 inches on the high end. Another system will bring showers and storms mid next week. However, flooding concerns appear low with both systems.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Tallahassee 83 64 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 65 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 81 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 81 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 82 61 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 83 65 84 67 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 79 66 80 68 / 0 0 0 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

FL: High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115.

GA: None. AL: None. GM: Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday for GMZ770- 772-775.