Jacksonville, FL 32206 Weather

Key messages

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend. Coastal Flood Warning Widespread Moderate Tidal Flooding along the

- Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway & St. Johns River Basin through Thursday. Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal Flooding within the St. Johns River Basin. High Surf Advisory through Thursday Night at Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk for Rip Currents at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through Friday. Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters through Early Friday Morning. Gusty Northeasterly Winds Continue at Coastal Locations through Friday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night

Update

No changes to the forecast this evening.

Near term

Main Highlights:

- Coastal Flood Warnings Remain in Effect through Thursday Night along coastal locations of Northeast FL and Southeast GA, the Intracoastal Waterway, and the Entirety of the St. Johns River basin.

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend. Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal Flooding within the St. Johns River Basin Continues into the Upcoming Weekend. High Surf Advisory through Thursday Night at the Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk for Rip Currents at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through Friday. Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters through at least Friday. Gusty Northeasterly Winds Continue at Coastal Locations through Friday.

A dry airmass remains over the area with current GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery depicting PWATs from 0.75 to 1.0 inches across SE GA and 1.0 to 1.35 inches across NE FL. Not expecting much in the way of showers aside from offshore showers shifting towards coastal locations south of the JAX metro thanks to the persistent breezy to gusty northeasterly onshore flow. With the flow, streaks of lower stratus and stratocumulus clouds continue to push onshore over NE FL locations. Otherwise, daytime highs expected in the mid 70s to lower 80s with the cooler temperatures along the coast thanks to the onshore flow. By the evening hours, isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue to push towards the coast of NE FL. Overnight Lows in the lower to mid 60s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region, while mid 60s to lower 70s across the rest of NE FL.

Short term

Main Highlights This Period: Thursday through Friday night

- Coastal hazards continue

Weakening high pressure will be centered to the north northeast Thursday, as an inverted trough moves west across southern FL. The gradient between these features will continue to provide elevated flow across area waters. With the flow from the northeast, inland areas will have less wind than closer to the coast. Convergence associated with gradient between features will be strongest near the NE FL coast, resulting in showers. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels near the coast, but above average further inland Thursday. The northeast flow will provide a wide range in temperatures Thursday night, with lows over inland SE GA in the upper 50s, and upper 60s over much of NE FL.

Another high will build to the northwest Friday, then north Friday night, as weak inverted troughs move through the onshore flow. A few showers will be expected across coastal NE FL due to the weak troughs.

Long term

Main Highlights This Period: Saturday through Wednesday

- High risk of rip currents continues

High pressure to the north, will move away toward the northeast on Sunday, as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf.

This low will track across the area Sunday night, then to the north northeast Monday through Tuesday.

The region will be between high pressure ridging to the northeast and an area of low pressure to the west northwest.

Rain chances will increase Saturday night through Sunday in response to this low. Lower shower chances are then expected for Monday through Wednesday.

High temperatures will be near or little below seasonal average this period. Lows will trend above average.

Aviation

00Z TAF period will begin with a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions with tempo restrictions for IFR restrictions through 03Z at CRG and SSI. North northeast winds 10-15 knots will decrease to around 10 knots and 8-10 knots inland with Atlantic stratocumulus shifting onshore with prevailing MVFR ceilings 1.0-2.0 kft. moisture will bring in some showers to SGJ with MVFR restrictions for VSBY and CLNGs near 1.0 kft.

High pressure will shift from the north to the north northeast on Thursday as a trough moves westward from the Bahamas into south FL. Elevated winds will not be as high as Wednesday, but increase after 13Z-15Z to around 14-18 knots gusting to 25 knots at the coast while 12-15 knots inland with gusts to 20-25 knots. MVFR ceilings 2.5-3.0 kft will persist into the afternoon for the coastal and duval county terminals in Northeast FL, lifting to VFR levels at GNV and scattering out at SSI. Coastal showers will shift onshore to SGJ and CRG during much of the day with VCSH noted while chances too low at the remaining TAF sites.

Marine

Strong high pressure situated over New England will shift east of the New England coast overnight as weak low pressure lingers near southeast FL into Thursday morning. The high pressure ridge axis will extend from the western north Atlantic waters west southwest into the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday as the low to the south moves west across southern FL before weakening. The flow between these two features will create gusty northeasterly winds through Friday, keeping Small Craft Advisory conditions in place throughout our local waters.

Coastal troughing situated over our near shore waters will remain in place through Saturday, with this feature generating scattered showers across the local Northeast FL waters tonight. Periods of isolated to widely scattered showers will then be possible from Thursday through Sunday morning. Another strong high pressure center building southeastward from New England and the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend will result in breezy easterly winds across our local waters, with another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible as seas build. A disturbance aloft moving across our area on Sunday and Monday may generate numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories remain in effect for the northeast FL beaches through Thursday night, where breakers of 6 to 9 feet will prevail. Breakers of 3 to 6 feet will prevail at the southeast GA beaches through Thursday. These elevated, rough surf conditions will maintain a high risk of deadly rip currents at all area beaches through the upcoming weekend, and major beach erosion is likely to occur around times of high tide during this extended duration onshore wind event.

Fire weather

Elevated flow will continue between high pressure to the north and an inverted trough to the north through Thursday. Another high will build to the northwest then north Friday through Saturday. An area of low pressure will track northeast across the area Sunday into Monday. This low will then move to the northeast of area Tuesday.

The greatest chance for rain, along with thunderstorms, this period will be over the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected during the next several days.

Tides/coastal flooding

Northeasterly winds will remain breezy to windy and will combine with high astronomical tides due to today's lunar perigee to maintain moderate tidal flooding through Thursday along our local Atlantic coast and within the Intracoastal Waterway (ICWW) and the entirety of the St. Johns River basin. Water levels will generally reach 2-3 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of high tide through Thursday. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for coastal locations of southeast GA and northeast FL, in addition to within the ICWW and St. Johns River basin through Thursday night. Moderate tidal flooding may linger into the upcoming weekend within the St. Johns River basin, with minor flooding potential continuing around times of high tide along the Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River The long duration of this strong onshore wind event will likely produce major beach erosion during each high tide cycle through at least Thursday.

Preliminary point temps/pops

AMG 61 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 65 75 64 75 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 66 78 66 78 / 20 10 10 10 SGJ 70 77 69 78 / 50 50 20 30 GNV 66 81 67 82 / 10 10 10 10 OCF 68 83 68 84 / 10 30 10 20

Watches, warnings and advisories

FL: Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-124-125- 132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA: Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166. High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474.