Nocatee, FL 32095 Weather

Key messages

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend. Coastal Flood Warning Widespread Moderate Tidal Flooding along the

- Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway & St. Johns River Basin through Thursday. Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal Flooding within the St. Johns River Basin. High Surf Advisory through Thursday Night at the Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk for Rip Currents at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through Friday. Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters through at least Friday. Gusty Northeasterly Winds Continue at Coastal Locations through Friday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night

Update

Trended lows down another degree or two as well as dewpoints as clear skies and winds much lighter west of I-95 are allowing for temperatures to lower a bit faster than expected now in the mid 60s at Jacksonville Intl Airport. Still, low to upper 50s will be the lows for inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of NE FL, with low 60s along the SE GA coast and inland NE FL west of the St Johns river with upper 60s to low 70s along the NE FL coastline. Breezy coastal winds continue overnight 15-20 mph gusting to 30 mph. A few brief light showers may move quickly onto the Flagler and St Johns county coast overnight.

Near term

Main Highlights: Through Tonight

-Coastal hazards remain in place this period

The region will remain between strong high pressure to the north northeast, and an inverted trough to the south southeast this period. This pattern will continue the elevated onshore flow. A few spotty showers possible over NE FL coast through this afternoon. Temperatures will be near average Today. A broad range of temperatures is forecast Tonight due to the onshore flow, with lows over inland SE GA in the lower to middle 50s, and upper 60s to around 70 NE FL coast.

Short term

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Minor to Moderate Flooding During Times of High Tide Continuing Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway and the Entirety of the St. Johns River Basin.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf Advisories Continuing at the Northeast FL Beaches. A High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents will Persist at All Area Beaches. Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major Beach Erosion.

The upper level cutoff low situated over the Bahamas will gradually ascend northward on Wednesday prior to shifting eastward on Thursday. Concurrently, reinforcing surface high pressure will continue wedging southward along the southeastern seaboard, maintaining a tight local pressure gradient as well as persistent coastal troughing across the adjacent Atlantic waters. This atmospheric pattern will sustain robust northeasterly flow across the forecast area, with the most pronounced winds anticipated along the immediate coastline and within the St. Johns River basin.

Northeasterly winds will intensify Wednesday, featuring sustained speeds of 20 to 25 mph alongside frequent gusts reaching 30 to 35 mph across coastal northeast Florida. Breezy conditions will expand further inland toward the late morning and early afternoon hours. Strengthening low level convergence along the northern periphery of the coastal trough, coupled with persistent onshore flow, will facilitate the inland transport of Atlantic moisture, promoting increased shower activity along the First Coast from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Showers will initially move onshore south of Mayport before expanding westward into portions of the St. Johns River basin, particularly south of the Interstate 10 corridor. Forecast guidance indicates precipitation probabilities ranging between 20 and 40 percent across areas extending from southeast of Mayport to southeastern Marion County, with chances diminishing considerably further inland and becoming minimal to nil west of Highway 301. Despite the anticipated increase in shower coverage, overall accumulation is expected to remain predominantly light.

Persistent onshore flow will keep Wednesday daytime highs in the mid 70s along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor, with upper 70s to lower 80s observed further inland. A comparable temperature distribution is expected Thursday, with coastal highs reaching the mid to upper 70s and inland temperatures rising to the lower 80s, alongside localized mid 80s across north central Florida. Wednesday night lows will generally range from the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast and across eastern portions of the forecast area, dipping into the lower to middle 60s further inland.

On Thursday, surface high pressure will gradually weaken and reorient over the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, allowing the local pressure gradient to slowly ease. Nevertheless, persistent coastal troughing and convergent east northeasterly flow will continue to carry isolated to scattered showers onshore across coastal northeast Florida south of Neptune Beach and into the St. Johns River basin. Winds will gradually abate inland Thursday evening while remaining breezy near the coast. Continued moisture advection will favor the development of low stratus across much of the region during the predawn and early morning hours Friday. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s across inland southeast Georgia, whereas persistent onshore flow will maintain temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across northeast Florida.

Coastal Hazards: Persistent strong onshore flow, combined with elevated astronomical tides associated with lunar perigee, will sustain widespread moderate tidal flooding along the Atlantic coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and St. Johns River basin through Thursday night. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect. Hazardous surf and a High Risk of Rip Currents will persist at area beaches, with significant beach erosion likely around times of high tide.

Long term

Main Highlights This Period:

- Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues During Times of High Tide Within the St. Johns River Basin.

- Dangerous Surf Conditions Persist, with an Elevated Rip Current Risk Likely Continuing through the Upcoming Weekend.

- Increasing Chances for Showers and a Few Thunderstorms on Sunday and Sunday Evening.

The synoptic pattern will gradually evolve through the weekend, introducing heightened possibilities for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday. Upper level ridging centered over the southern Gulf of Mexico will expand northeastward across the region through Friday. At the surface, reinforcing high pressure building southeastward from the Great Lakes will maintain a persistent wedge along the southeastern seaboard, sustaining breezy onshore flow and coastal troughing through Saturday.

Friday and Saturday: Persistent onshore flow will maintain a limited shower threat across coastal areas from south of Ponte Vedra Beach into Flagler County Friday, with coverage potentially increasing Saturday as low level winds gradually veer, allowing isolated to widely scattered showers to migrate farther inland during the afternoon. Continued maritime moisture advection will also favor periods of low stratus development across inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 70s along and east of Interstate 95 to the lower to middle 80s farther inland. Overnight lows will settle into the lower to middle 60s across inland areas, while persistent onshore flow keeps coastal temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70F.

Sunday and Monday: A more pronounced shift in the synoptic pattern is anticipated as a southern stream trough amplifies over the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday before progressing eastward across the forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening, ultimately moving offshore by Monday afternoon. As surface high pressure retreats offshore of coastal New England, low level winds will gradually veer to southerly ahead of the approaching system, facilitating the northward transport of deeper moisture into northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. This combination of increasing atmospheric moisture and large scale forcing associated with the advancing trough will favor numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading from west to east across the region, primarily Sunday afternoon and evening.

Recent NBM guidance indicates a notable increase in precipitation probabilities, with PoPs reaching 60 to 70 percent Sunday and Sunday evening as a wet and unsettled weather pattern advances eastward across the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with potential of isolated embedded thunderstorms within the broader area of showers Sunday afternoon. Precipitation could linger into Monday morning, particularly along the Interstate 95 corridor, before the system moves offshore and drier conditions gradually return.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday will generally range from the mid to upper 70s along the coast to the lower and middle 80s inland. Overnight lows will remain in the mid to upper 60s Saturday night before settling into the middle 60s Sunday night as increasing cloud cover and precipitation overspread the region.

Coastal Hazards: Elevated coastal water levels and hazardous beach conditions may persist into the weekend as the prolonged onshore flow gradually weakens. Minor to moderate tidal flooding will remain a concern, particularly within the St. Johns River basin, while rough surf and an elevated rip current risk continue along area beaches. The duration and severity of these hazards will depend on the evolution of the coastal pressure pattern and the eventual relaxation of persistent onshore winds.

Aviation

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with few to scattered lower CLNGs 2.0 to 2.5 kft moving onshore to SGJ and CRG through sunrise Wednesday with winds remaining elevated 10-12 knots and gust to 20 knots except higher at SGJ around 15 knots gusting to 25 knots.

Wednesday, high pressure will wedge down the southeast coast from the north, tightening the local pressure gradient as low pressure remains to the southeast near the Bahamas. North northeast winds will increase to 15 knots inland gusting to 25 knots and 15-20 knots gusting to 25-30 knots along the coast. MVFR CLNGs will develop as more Atlantic stratocumulus clouds decks 2.5 kft move onshore with increasing showers near SGJ with VCSH coverage in the afternoon.

Marine

High pressure to the north will slowly move more toward the northeast through Wednesday, as inverted trough slide west across southern FL. The high will weaken to the northeast, as the inverted trough moves into the Gulf Thursday. With the weakening high, and trough moving away, the onshore flow will weaken into Thursday night. Another high will build to the north over the weekend.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High risk of rip currents and high surf to continue through Thursday. The high risk of rip currents will likely continue through the upcoming weekend.

Fire weather

ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND

- Along The I-95 Corridor Through Thursday Night

Very limited shower activity will continue to occasionally move onshore along the northeast Florida coast through tonight, mainly for locations from St. Augustine to Palatka and points southward. Shower coverage will increase on Wednesday and Thursday for coastal northeast Florida and the St. Johns River basin to the south of Jacksonville. Otherwise, dry weather will continue during the next several days for southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, and the western interior of Northeast Florida.

Strong northeasterly surface and transport winds will continue along the northeast Florida coastal counties through Thursday, with breezy conditions elsewhere yielding fair to good daytime dispersion values area-wide. Breezy surface and transport winds during the overnight hours will result in elevated nighttime dispersion values for locations along and east of I-95 each night through Thursday. Surface and transport winds will then shift to east-northeasterly on Friday and easterly on Saturday, with breezy speeds keeping fair to good daytime dispersion values in the forecast area-wide.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected during the next several days.

Tides/coastal flooding

Northeasterly winds will remain breezy and will combine with high astronomical tides due to the lunar perigee to maintain moderate tidal flooding this week within the St. Johns River basin, with minor to moderate flooding continuing during times of high tide along the Atlantic coast and intracoastal. Water levels will generally reach 2-3 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of high tide. The long duration of this strong onshore wind event will likely produce major beach erosion during each high tide cycle through at least Thursday.

Preliminary point temps/pops

AMG 52 79 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 75 66 75 / 0 0 10 0 JAX 64 77 67 78 / 10 10 30 10 SGJ 70 77 71 79 / 10 30 50 40 GNV 63 80 68 82 / 0 0 20 20 OCF 64 81 70 84 / 0 10 20 40

Watches, warnings and advisories

FL: Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-124-125- 132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA: High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for GAZ154- 166. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474.