- Fresh northeast breezes over the Gulf waters will continue to support a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions through the weekend.
- Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend, particularly on Sunday.
Short term and long term
(This Evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Low level northeasterly flow will continue for the next couple of days as surface troughing maintains in the Bahamas and high pressure remains anchored in the eastern US. A few gusts to 20 mph will occur each afternoon through Friday. Ridging overhead will keep conditions dry with highs above normal with readings in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Heading into the weekend, mid level ridging will get shunted southward as a shortwave trough develops in the desert southwest and ejects into the southern Plains and southern Mississippi Valley Friday and Saturday and into the southeast US Sunday. Rain chances Halloween evening increase (30-40%) generally west of a Tallahassee to Albany line with the higher end into southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle. Not anticipating a washout as higher rainfall amounts appear relegated to overnight Saturday night into Sunday. Stashing a small umbrella into the treat bag of little ghosts and ghouls might be a good idea.
Rainfall exits stage right Sunday night into Monday with dry conditions anticipated Tuesday as shortwave ridging builds through the southeast US on the heels of the departing trough. Looking upstream, a stout upper low develops over the central Plains with a cold front slicing through the Mid-South. This system will gradually move into the southeast US later next week.
Slightly cooler temperatures are in the offering Sunday and Monday with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s. A gradual warming trend will occur into Tuesday with readings back into the low 80s. Overnight lows MOnday and Tuesday mornings will bottom out in the upper 50s.
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 718 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
VFR cigs are expected to prevail through most of the night for most areas. For early Thursday morning, a stratus deck is expected to move westward from the Atlantic. As a result, MVFR cigs are forecast for VLD near sunrise with VFR returning again by early afternoon.
Marine
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Moderate to fresh northeasterly breezes continue through Friday between high pressure to the north and low pressure in the Bahamas. Winds turn more easterly ahead of a low pressure system this coming up weekend. Small Craft Advisories continue for the central and western portions of our waters, and this may need to be extended into more of our western waters into the weekend. Seas remain around 3 to 6 feet. Rain chances will increase this weekend over the waters.
Fire weather
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
The stretch of dry weather will continue through Friday. Northeasterly transport winds will continue around 15-20 mph Thursday with a gradual weakening of the wind Friday into the weekend. Good dispersions are anticipated through Friday with some possibility of low dispersions along coastal locations and the Florida panhandle Saturday. Wetting rains return beginning Saturday afternoon through Monday morning as a low pressure system moves through the southeast US.
Hydrology
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Average rainfall amounts will be around an inch this weekend with isolated higher amounts to 2 inches. These amounts will fall from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning, with a period of dry conditions afterwards into midweek. Flooding is not expected at this time.
Spotter information statement
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