Jesup, GA 31545 Weather

Key messages

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend. Coastal Flood Warning: Moderate Flooding along the upper St. Johns River. Coastal Flood Advisory: Minor flooding along the Atlantic Coast and lower St Johns River High Surf Advisory at Northeast FL Beaches; Elevated through the weekend. High Rip Current Risk at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend. Small Craft Advisories for the Atlantic Waters continue.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Heavy Rainfall Possible across portions of NE FL south of I-10.

Near term

Main Highlights:

- Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue, especially at Northeast FL Beaches

Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will shift eastward toward the mid-Atlantic region later tonight. This will maintain ENE winds across the area though slightly weaker than yesterday. Occasional coastal showers will develop in the convergent ENE flow and shift onshore through the day mainly to the NE FL coast and St Johns river basin. Accumulations are expected to be light. Daytime highs will range from the mid/upper 70s along the coast to the low 80s further inland. A backdoor cold front will start to approach from the north as the surface high pressure wedges down the eastern seaboard to gradually increase NE winds. Lows tonight will range from the 60s over SE GA and inland FL to the low 70s closer to the St. Johns River and NE FL coast.

Short term

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal flooding and surf hazards continue through the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms for portions of NE FL on Sunday

Breezy northeasterly flow continues through the weekend as wind speeds from 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph, higher speeds near the coast, with onshore flow strengthening on Saturday afternoon with an approaching frontal boundary. Coastal showers are once will continue Saturday, with the areal coverage of showers expanding northward across coastal NE FL and SE GA, with some some showers expected to push a bit more inland than the past couple of days.

By Sunday, both the chances and areal coverage of showers increase with most locations with scattered chances of showers, with higher chances near the coast and north central FL locations. Additionally, some thunderstorm development will be possible by the afternoon hours primarily over NE FL. With these showers, there could be periods of heavy rainfall, which could be an issue if training showers develop.

Temperatures will cool through the weekend with daytime highs in the lower 80s across inland locations, while coastal locations will sit in the mid to upper 70s, sparse spots in the lower 80s. By Sunday, daytime temperatures will be a bit cooler behind the cold front and increase in cloud cover with daytime highs topping out in the mid 70s, with some locations across north central FL reaching into the lower 80s.

The persistent onshore flow will continue to keep the potential for coastal hazards through the weekend.

Long term

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential returns midweek.

- Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions.

By the start of the upcoming week, showers will continue to push towards coastal locations with a few moving towards inland locations during the afternoon hours. As northeasterly flow persists during the upcoming week, we will continue to expect coastal showers into midweek. A midweek frontal boundary looks to push into the area as its associated low pressure system swings across the SE US. This could bring the next chance for convective activity as a line of thunderstorms moves into the area past midweek during the Wednesday to Thursday time frame.

Temperatures in the mid 70s will warm into the lower 80s by midweek ahead of the next frontal passage.

Aviation

Mostly MVFR ceilings persist across the area this evening, though some improvements are expected overnight tonight in this regard as a "back door" cold front quickly approaches from the north. Most guidance is overall in good agreement that this front will help to scatter out some of the lower clouds across the area. Main point of uncertainty will be at inland areas, as some higher resolution guidance does suggest low stratus lingering/developing at terminals such as VQQ and GNV, and therefore kept at least scattered MVFR ceilings for now overnight at this sites. Otherwise, the front will reinforce onshore flow once again during the day on Saturday.

Marine

Strong high pressure over area waters will shift southward while weakening slightly today. Another strong high pressure center building southeastward from the Upper Midwest today will reach the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday, with this feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. Although a slight lull in winds and seas is expected through tonight, the surge will return hazards across the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula this weekend may generate numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories remain in effect for the northeast FL beaches through tonight, where breakers of 5 to 6 feet will prevail. Breakers of 3 to 5 feet will prevail at the southeast GA beaches today. These elevated, rough surf conditions will maintain a high risk of deadly rip currents at all area beaches through the upcoming weekend, and additional beach erosion is likely to occur around times of high tide.

Fire weather

AREAS OF ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS

- Through The Weekend

Coastal showers will continue to be pushed onshore through the overnight hours Tonight. Shower chances will increase during the upcoming weekend, with thunderstorms chances during the afternoon hours on Sunday, primarily along coastal and inland NE FL. Chances remain during the start of the upcoming week, higher chances along the coast and towards the I-95 corridor. Northeasterly onshore flow will continue to breezy to gusty conditions across the area, with higher speeds along coastal locations. This will allow for nighttime dispersions to remain elevated through the weekend and the start of the upcoming week along the coast.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected during the next several days.

Tides/coastal flooding

Weaker NE flow and relatively lower astronomical tides is allowing for sites to dip into Minor and Action flood stage along the coast, ICW and portions of the St Johns River today. Coastal Flood Warnings have all been downgraded to Advisories except for eastern Putnam for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again this weekend maintaining reverse flow in the St Johns river and continuing beach erosion along the Atlantic coast. Flood levels may rise back into moderate Sunday into early next week along the St Johns river.

Preliminary point temps/pops

AMG 62 80 63 76 / 10 10 10 20 SSI 66 76 65 74 / 20 50 40 50 JAX 67 79 66 76 / 20 40 30 50 SGJ 70 79 70 77 / 30 30 30 50 GNV 68 83 69 79 / 10 10 20 50 OCF 69 84 70 80 / 0 10 20 50

Watches, warnings and advisories

FL: Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124- 125-132-138-225-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ137. GA: High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ470-472-474.