Commerce, GA 30529 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

Day one

This Afternoon and Tonight:

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday:

No hazardous weather is expected through Saturday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible by midweek associated with an approaching frontal system. No widespread severe weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

: Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion:

Key messages

- Expect overall near-seasonal high temperatures through the next 7 days. Low temperatures will likely be some 8-16 degrees above average.

- Saturday night through Sunday night will bring potential for showers across parts of the area, followed by likely more widespread showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.

Short term

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dry conditions will continue through the majority of the short-term forecast, with a shifting pattern taking shape late Saturday into Sunday. At the mid levels, a ridge across our region will dampen as a shortwave trough ejects into the ArkLaTex region this evening. As it does, an increase in mid to upper level clouds will filter into the region overnight and remain in place through Saturday. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will drive a wedge front through the area on Saturday, reinforcing northeast winds with afternoon gusts up to 20-25 mph. This will set up the possibility of a few isentropically forced showers around the area Saturday afternoon, but precipitation total will be very limited through Saturday night due to the drier low level air associated with the wedge. This outcome aligns with guidance trending lower on QPF totals, keeping amounts under a quarter of an inch for the weekend.

The most likely outcome is a dry evening for trick-or-treat and other festivities Saturday evening. Temperatures will be warm today, about 5-10 degrees above normal, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s across our area. With the increased cloud cover on Saturday, high temperatures will drop a few degrees, but conditions will remain above normal through the short term.

Long term

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Like the previous AFD mentioned, our forecast continues to feature reduced rain chances on Sunday, with the most likely scenario being showers confined to the western half or so of the forecast area. Why? The global ensembles depict strong surface high pressure anchored across the Eastern Seaboard through the day, with a passing shortwave trough aloft. A "wedge" will result from this setup, with moisture advection atop supporting the potential for the aforementioned showers (or drizzle, per some forecast soundings) on Sunday, and the potential shifting across the rest of the state Sunday night into Monday morning. The chances for rain are essentially nil on Monday and Tuesday as persistent regional high pressure reinforces the wedge across north and central Georgia.

The synoptic scale pattern will change at midweek. Longwave troughing will set up aloft over the Eastern CONUS Wednesday and Thursday, but there are differences among the global ensembles regarding the strength of the troughing, plus jet streak placement/where wind maxima set up aloft (as the previous AFD discussed). This will impact the footprint of resulting surface low pressure and thus where rainfall is maximized. At this time, there is general consensus among the global ensembles that total rainfall will be maximized roughly along and north of the I-85 corridor, with totals ranging from 1 to 3 inches. That said, this could change as the aforementioned uncertain variables become better handled by the global and eventually regional/convective-allowing models. These variables will also impact parameters (such as deep-layer shear) that govern the potential for strong to severe storms. For now, it is safe to say that Wednesday and Thursday could be rainy and cloudy for some of north and central Georgia.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the overnight. While conditions will remain VFR, expect patchy ceilings to develop in the 8kft - 12kft range toward daybreak Saturday morning. Otherwise, surface winds will favor the northeast around 4-8kts during the day becoming light and variable after 03z at all sites. A strong wedge front will push through from the northeast on Saturday, so expect an increase of northeast winds with gusts through the day on Saturday.

//ATL Confidence: 18Z Update: High Confidence on all elements.

82

Preliminary point temps/pops

Athens 56 72 54 67 / 0 0 0 10 Atlanta 60 73 58 66 / 0 0 20 10 Blairsville 53 67 50 61 / 0 0 0 20 Cartersville 57 74 55 66 / 0 0 20 20 Columbus 62 78 60 72 / 0 10 20 20 Gainesville 59 69 56 63 / 0 0 0 10 Macon 58 78 57 72 / 0 0 10 10 Rome 54 74 54 65 / 0 0 20 30 Peachtree City 57 74 55 67 / 0 10 10 20 Vidalia 59 81 60 76 / 0 0 0 10

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.