St. Stephen, SC 29479 Weather

What has changed

The Aviation section has been updated for the 12z TAF issuance.

Key messages

- 1) Minor coastal flooding is expected along portions of the South Carolina coast through Saturday.

- 2) Continued risk for rip currents through the weekend.

- 3) Quiet conditions through Saturday with somewhat unsettled and breezy conditions Sunday into Monday.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding is expected along portions of the South Carolina coast through Saturday.

Astronomical tides will continue to trend lower the rest of this week as we get further away from the Full Moon and perigee. Decent tidal anomalies will stay in place the rest of this week due to persistent and elevated northeast winds. The Friday and Saturday early afternoon high tides are forecasted to reach minor coastal flooding thresholds at the Charleston Tide Gauge. Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories will be needed. The coastal flooding threat should finally end early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Continued risk for rip currents through the weekend.

Ongoing elevated winds, seas and tides will support a high risk for rip currents along the Georgia beaches today, with a moderate risk expected elsewhere across our South Carolina beaches.

The rip current risk then increases to high for all beaches by Saturday, as increased northeasterly winds and seas become more widespread.

Reminder: The local rip current program will end Saturday, October 31 with the afternoon Surf Zone Forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Quiet conditions through Saturday with somewhat unsettled and breezy conditions Sunday into Monday.

Dry conditions should prevail through Halloween with high pressure directly overhead the next 48 hours. The main talk will be the temperatures as highs today should climb into the 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast. Some patchy fog will also be possible across the Tri-county area this morning and given the smoke from prescribed burns, some very localized areas of dense fog cannot be ruled out. By Saturday the upper ridge will begin to breakdown as a shortwave trough ejects across the central US. Weak surface high pressure will wedge into the Carolinas keeping temperatures in the mid 70s across the Tri- county area with warmer temperatures south of the surface wedge front across coastal Georgia.

Our persistent upper pattern will finally switch by Sunday as the first of a couple systems moves through the area. Unfortunately for those looking for relief from drought conditions this system Sunday has continued to trend drier and most areas will likely see no rain this weekend. The best chance for rain looks to be across far southern coastal Georgia late Sunday into Sunday night. Other than that, expect breezy conditions along the coast as a surface low develops offshore and lifts northeast into the Atlantic Sunday into Monday. Wind gusts to around 20 to 25 mph will be possible along the immediate coastline. After Sunday, attention turns to the middle part of the week as the second and much stronger system moves into the eastern US. Guidance appears to be in fairly good agreement of the system being there, the question is when does it arrive and how strong will it be. Nonetheless, this system certainly catches the eye as our next real rain maker and potentially could bring a rumble of thunder to the middle part of next week. We will continue to monitor this system in the coming days as details become clearer.

Aviation

IFR conditions continue this morning at KCHS and KJZI as fog and low ceilings have developed across Charleston metro area. VFR coniditons prevail elsewhere this morning with light north- northeasterly winds. VFR conditions should return by mid- morning to the area and persist throughout the day with a light northeasterly wind prevailing. Winds will relax after sunset to below 5 knots.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are possible this weekend into Monday with an increased risk for rain impacts Sunday into Monday.

Marine

Saturday through Tuesday: Restrengthening of the inland wedge to the north this weekend and then the development of a weak coastal trough afterwards will drive northeast gusts back up to 25-30 kt and building seas above 6 ft. Another round of Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore waters could be needed Saturday afternoon potentially into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory for the Georgia offshore waters will likely continue through the entire period as 6 ft seas or greater will remain.

Watches, warnings and advisories

GA: High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239- 241. SC: Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ044-045- 150-152. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ149-150. MARINE: Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ384.