Trending drier for Sunday and dry for Monday and Tuesday.
Key messages
1. Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday through Tuesday so confidence on getting any rain remains very low. The next best chance for rain does not look to arrive until the middle of next week. Above normal temperatures expected, with the exception of Sunday.
Discussion
Key message 1: Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday through Tuesday so confidence on getting any rain remains very low. The next best chance for rain does not look to arrive until the middle of next week. Above normal temperatures expected, with the exception of Sunday.
Warm and dry high pressure lingers over the region through Friday keeping well above normal temperatures around. Highs peak on Friday, climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountain valleys and east of the mountains.
A dry backdoor cold front tracks across the GSP forecast area late Friday into early Saturday. Cold air damming gradually develops behind the front as surface high pressure centers itself over the Northeast US this weekend. This will allow much cooler high temperatures to return. Highs on Saturday will remain a few degrees above normal, with highs on Sunday dropping near normal to just below normal. Model guidance continues trending drier each forecast cycle, showing the southern periphery of the surface ridge shunting the bulk of moisture south and west of the GSP forecast area. As a result, the latest NBM has trended even lower on PoPs Sunday into Sunday night, depicting mostly slight chance PoPs across the western half of the forecast area.
The high looks to remain in control of the pattern through at least Tuesday, allowing mostly dry conditions to continue. Thus, NBM no longer has mentionable PoPs (<15%) on Monday or Tuesday. The next best chance for rain looks to arrive by Wednesday or Thursday as a low pressure system approaches out of the west. A slight warming trend can be expected through much of the workweek, with high temperatures trending back above normal.
Aviation
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 18Z TAF period. The mountain valley fog potential appears low again overnight into daybreak Friday. Thus, do not have restrictions mentioned at KAVL. Lighter winds can be expected through TAF period compared to yesterday. Wind direction will be mainly N/NE east of the mountains and NW/WNW at KAVL.
Outlook: Dry and VFR through at least Saturday. Rain and associated restrictions may return Sunday but confidence is now very low with global weather models trending drier each successive model run. Models are now trending dry for Monday and Tuesday.
Watches, warnings and advisories
GA: None. NC: None. SC: None.
From the National Weather Service; may be delayed. Not for life-safety decisions. In an emergency, call 911.
Observed today
Since midnight, vs yesterday and normal
Today's high so far is 11° above the normal of 63° and 5° warmer than yesterday's high.
High so far
73°
11° above normal
Low so far
46°
Normal low 38°
Precipitation
0.00 in
Since midnight
Yesterday
High 68° · Low 39° · Precip 0.00 in
Normal for today
High 63° · Low 38°
Observed at Asheville, Asheville Regional Airport (KAVL) since midnight local time, through 5:50 PM. Station reports are preliminary and not quality controlled. Normals are estimated from 1991 to 2020 monthly normals at Burnsville Ag.
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