Boone, NC 28684 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Maintaining a fire weather section for those concerned with burning conditions.

Cloud forecast remains on track. Updated AVN forecast to account for IFR conditions across the piedmont this morning.

Models still on track for low level clouds moving from I-95 corridor into the Piedmont and Blue Ridge from the east this morning while upper level clouds overspread the western CWA from the west.

Key messages

Dry weather is forecast through Saturday, trending wet for Sunday and persisting through the first full week of November. Friday will be the warmest day of this week.

Discussion

Upper level ridge of High pressure is still in control. This will maintain the dry weather theme in spite of periodic cloudiness. Low level easterly winds will transport shallow layer of moisture into the area from the east today: lingering tonight before waning Thursday. A transient area of upper level clouds (cirrus) will move from west to east across the region today, exiting the region tonight. This upper level cloud element is the remnants of the weather system that brought flash flooding to the southern Rockies this past weekend: the system now reduced to a band of cirrus.

All of this extra cloud cover will likely keep temperatures muted today: but still close to the seasonal normals. The warmest day of the week is expected to be Friday as winds turn westerly, skies clearing and giving a boost to the numbers. Model Output Statistics (MOS) indicate highs a full 10 degrees above normal for Friday which means 70s for most folks and around 80 degrees in the Piedmont.

As for the next chance of rain. Models have been consistent with advertisement of a southern stream short wave to cross the country over the weekend, bringing moisture into the area beginning Sunday November 1st. Some rain may sneak in here late Halloween night, but all models still insist on dry conditions for the Trick-or-Treat crowd Saturday evening.

Strength of the initial wave Sunday appears weak, but models do indicate southeast upslope flow which should enhance the rain chance along the Blue Ridge. A series of disturbances are forecast to follow during the week, so it looks promising for additional rainfall, and this should help snuff the late October dry spell.

Aviation

Cirrus will impact the region through this early this evening, with clear air already entering into the western tip of VA this afternoon.

Models have backed off on the worst of the stratus for tonight, and it appears the strongest easterly flow may hold just west of KLYH and KDAN. We will see low clouds, but may not be much LIFR/IFR. Some models indicate MVFR is more likely for the majority of the TAF sites. If we see a light northerly flow near KLYH and KDAN this scenario should hold. Also should see some patchy fog, but again may not be less than MVFR except perhaps at KLWB. Restrictions should clear by 13-15Z with light winds tomorrow.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:

Friday is expected to be VFR with little or no cloud cover. Clouds increase over the weekend trending sub-VFR Sunday into Monday as a storm system moves from west to east across the region.

Fire weather

Dry weather is expected through the end of the month with near to above normal temperatures. The next appreciable chance for rainfall looks to be Sunday with additional opportunities for rain during the first week of November.

With respect to the next few days, today will feature variable amounts of cloud cover, stable conditions with poor mixing. Thursday will be similar, but improving during the afternoon. Friday is expected to the most favorable with respect to burning conditions, temperatures warming 10 degrees above normal. Some locations in the Piedmont may reach 80 degrees.

Transport winds will be from an easterly direction today and near calm Thursday. Friday will be the best day for ventilation and mixing, transport winds from the northwest.

Pattern change will bring above normal chance for rainfall November 1-7.

Watches, warnings and advisories

VA: None. NC: None. WV: None.