Jefferson, NC 28617 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Maintaining a fire weather section for those concerned with burning conditions.

Cloud forecast remains on track. Updated AVN forecast to account for IFR conditions across the piedmont this morning.

Models still on track for low level clouds moving from I-95 corridor into the Piedmont and Blue Ridge from the east this morning while upper level clouds overspread the western CWA from the west.

Key messages

Dry weather is forecast through Saturday, trending wet for Sunday and persisting through the first full week of November. Friday will be the warmest day of this week.

Discussion

The next several days will continue to remain rather quiet weather wise, with upper level ridging and surface high pressure remaining fixed over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Low level easterly flow with a long fetch off the Atlantic will continue to bring in slightly higher dewpoints into the Piedmont through Thursday morning, which will again lead to some low clouds developing across the area. These clouds look to dissipate by the 9-10am timeframe across these locations. The increased moisture may also lead to fog development across the area as well, with higher probabilities of this development expected across mountain locations. Beyond tomorrow, the area looks to remain dry, with minimal cloud cover expected through the end of the work week.

By Halloween, upper level clouds look to push into the region from the next system that looks to move across the conus. This should bring temperatures back down to near normal values after Friday's well above normal forecast high temperatures. Regardless, dry weather will continue through the end of the Month, leading to a pleasant trick or treat experience for all across the region!

Some uncertainty has developed in the forecast with early next weeks potential rain maker. Both the GFS and ECMWF keep the region predominantly dry through next Tuesday as high pressure to our north looks to maintain enough dry air across the region to prevent precipitation from falling. The ECMWF is the most bullish with this aggressive high pressure system and weaker shortwave across the deep south that the area completely stays dry through much of the next week. Current ensemble spread between both the GEFS and EPS have the area receiving less than 0.25 inches of rainfall areawide from this early week system. Expect rain chances to remain low for this system for now as models come into better agreement.

By the end of next week, there appears to be decent ensemble support in the GEFS and EPS ensembles for an amplified upper level trough digging south into the Gulf states before lifting to the northeast through the region by the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Timing and specifics on this system are still unknown at this time; however, widespread rainfall will certainly be on tap for the end of next week as this system approaches.

Aviation

Cirrus will impact the region through this early this evening, with clear air already entering into the western tip of VA this afternoon.

Models have backed off on the worst of the stratus for tonight, and it appears the strongest easterly flow may hold just west of KLYH and KDAN. We will see low clouds, but may not be much LIFR/IFR. Some models indicate MVFR is more likely for the majority of the TAF sites. If we see a light northerly flow near KLYH and KDAN this scenario should hold. Also should see some patchy fog, but again may not be less than MVFR except perhaps at KLWB. Restrictions should clear by 13-15Z with light winds tomorrow.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:

Friday is expected to be VFR with little or no cloud cover. Clouds increase over the weekend trending sub-VFR Sunday into Monday as a storm system moves from west to east across the region.

Fire weather

Dry weather is expected through the end of the month with near to above normal temperatures. The next appreciable chance for rainfall looks to be Sunday with additional opportunities for rain during the first week of November.

With respect to the next few days, today will feature variable amounts of cloud cover, stable conditions with poor mixing. Thursday will be similar, but improving during the afternoon. Friday is expected to the most favorable with respect to burning conditions, temperatures warming 10 degrees above normal. Some locations in the Piedmont may reach 80 degrees.

Transport winds will be from an easterly direction today and near calm Thursday. Friday will be the best day for ventilation and mixing, transport winds from the northwest.

Pattern change will bring above normal chance for rainfall November 1-7.

Watches, warnings and advisories

VA: None. NC: None. WV: None.