Spring Lake, NC 28308 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

* No significant changes.

Key messages

As of 150 AM Wednesday:

1) While overcast skies are forecast today and Thursday morning, conditions will remain dry.

2) Forecast uncertainty remains high on next chance for measurable rainfall and amounts during the first week of November.

Discussion

As of 150 AM Wednesday:

KEY MESSAGE 1: While overcast skies are forecast today and Thursday morning, conditions will remain dry.

An area of low clouds has developed across eastern North Carolina and the clouds will spread west overnight, reaching the Triad around sunrise. There could also be some patchy fog as well around sunrise. The clouds will slowly rise in height during the day, but no rain is in the forecast. These clouds will continue overnight and into Thursday, slowly eroding from east to west during the day. The clouds will keep today's highs a couple degrees cooler than yesterday, closer to normal for this time of year, and result in mild low temperatures tonight, generally in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Forecast uncertainty remains high on next chance for measurable rainfall and amounts during the first week of November.

Model guidance continue to struggle with the forecast pattern evolution through the first week of November with two primary drivers in this uncertainty. The first is the moisture associated with Tropical Cyclone Vance as it lifts through southwest Mexico and into the Four Corners and Southern Plains region Fri before shifting eastward into the Southeast Sat into Sun and perhaps Carolinas Sun night into Mon. Locally over the Carolinas ahead of this influx of deep-layer moisture, a reinforcing dry cold front will provide renewed high pressure persisting over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas this weekend and could provide a favorable setup for isentropic ascent and overrunning given adequate forcing/moisture in place. However, outside of the GFS and its ensemble suite, most guidance is shunting the better QPF signal farther south with only light accumulations in NC Sun night into Tues night.

The second and perhaps better signal may exist beyond the current forecast period as a strong mid/upper low shifts from the West Coast on Sun into the Central Plains into the mid-week timeframe. How and when this feature will develop is understandably uncertain as the driving features will not phase until this weekend. The general consensus among ensemble guidance highlights the Wed/Thurs-night window for increased rain chances, but details are muddy at this time.

Aviation

As of 635 AM Wednesday:

TAF period: LIFR ceilings are expected to reach all terminals by 12Z along with IFR/LIFR visibilities. Ceilings and visibilities will lift through the morning, with all sites expected to be VFR by 18Z. Mid-level ceilings will continue at all terminals through the afternoon and evening hours. There is high confidence in VFR conditions continuing until 06Z, then confidence greatly drops. It appears likely that at least some MVFR ceilings should develop, although the amount of coverage is uncertain. Through the next 24 hours, the wind will be out of the northeast between 3-10 kt.

Outlook: MVFR ceilings appear likely through 18Z Thursday, with isolated IFR ceilings possible. After that, dry VFR conditions are forecast through Saturday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.